Session IV: Making Data Informed Decisions (Ramblings from the Right Coast) Larry Brown, MSW PA Roundtable - Pittsburgh November 21, 2009

“Stock and Flow” Model Courtesy of Chapin Hall Center for Children, University of Chicago

Unintended Consequences (Imaginable Effects?) Front End Strategies Other Potential Effects: Re-occurrence of abuse or neglect (are children being SAFELY diverted?) Keep an eye on the back end. Do discharges slow (LOS goes up) while you’re paying attention elsewhere? Reduced Entries

Unintended Effects Back End Strategies Other Potential Effects: Look for re-entry issues (Are children leaving with adequate supports?) Keep an eye on the front end. More Exits to Permanency

Unintended Effects Congregate Care Reduction Other Considerations: Monitor and plan for what happens in your provider community. It may not be your lowest quality providers who go out of business. Placement stability. Less restrictive placements

Unintended Effects Targeting Subpopulations Other Considerations: Fewer of subpopulation in care Monitor the other parts of the system. As you move members of the sub-population, do kids from other strata move in to backfill? (e.g., if you move kids out of congregate care, do intake criteria change to fill beds? Solution? Close beds.) Case mix will also change. Affects system dynamics (e.g., reducing “easy” entrants may increase average LOS)

Use Data That Meet YOUR Focus and Need Use existing reports, but know their limits/blind spots Supplement where needed It’s not always about quantity…

Three Helpful Ways to Compare Rates and Percents - do the work for your users Comparisons to Peers - motivational and political, but least useful; diagnostic Comparisons to Self Over Time - most valuable, IF the measure is useful

When Building Reports: Do the work for the user Source: PA Data Update, NGA, June, 2009

Other Things to Think About Seasonality. Many jurisdictions are tracking changes in population month-to-month, but many systems experience seasonality in their system. Monitoring. Strengths-based monitoring relies on leaving a little room for qualitative explanations. Investment Strategies. States should consider how their strategies work in terms of a return on investment. Integrated Work. The strongest, longest-lasting strategy is one that is consistent with the agency’s practice model.

How to Proceed? ID targets Decide appropriate measures Watch for unintended, but imaginable, consequences Measure systematically; predict where you want to be Report routinely and transparently

Team Time