Advance Project Management - CPH Risk Management Module 4 - Risk Management

Risk Definitions Risk Management The practice of dealing with project risk. It includes planning for risk, assessing risk, developing risk response strategies, and monitoring risk throughout the project life cycle. 35

Risk Definitions Risk Uncertain event that has a positive or negative effect on at least one of the project objectives (scope, schedule, budget, quality). 35

Threat A project risk that has a negative effect. Risk Definitions Threat A project risk that has a negative effect. Project Managers will look for ways to eliminate or reduce the effects of a threat. 35

Opportunity A project risk that has a positive effect. Risk Definitions Opportunity A project risk that has a positive effect. Project Managers will look for ways to enhance, exploit, or share the effects of an opportunity. 35

Risk Trigger An indicator that a risk event is imminent. Risk Definitions Risk Trigger An indicator that a risk event is imminent. 35

Risk Tolerance Risk Adverse / Risk Averter Risk Neutral Risk Definitions Risk Tolerance Risk Adverse / Risk Averter Risk Neutral Risk Taker / Risk Seeker 35

Risk Adverse / Risk Avoider Risk Tolerance Risk Adverse / Risk Avoider U Tolerance diminishes as more money is at stake. Prefers a more certain outcome and will demand a premium to accept risk. $ 36

Risk Tolerance Risk Neutral U Utility rises at a constant rate. $ 36

Risk Taker / Risk Seeker Risk Tolerance Risk Taker / Risk Seeker U Tolerance increases as more money is at stake. Prefers a more uncertain outcome and be willing to pay a penalty to take a risk. $ 36

Executive Order 1032.00E Project Management On-Line Guide WSDOT Risk Policy Executive Order 1032.00E Project Management On-Line Guide Risk Register www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/ProjectMgmt/ 37

Cost Risk Estimating & Management (CREM) WSDOT Risk Policy Cost Risk Estimating & Management (CREM) CEVP – Cost Estimate Validation Process CRA – Cost Risk Assessment www.wsdot.wa.gov/Projects/ProjectMgmt/RiskAssessment/ 37

Risk Management Planning Risk Planning Process Risk Management Planning The objectives of Risk Management Planning are to increase the probability and impact of positive events (opportunities) and decrease the probability and impact of adverse events (threats) to project objectives. 38

Ignoring risk doesn’t make the risk go away! Risk Planning Process Risk Management Planning Protects project investments Proactive management – early warning Achieve project objectives Ignoring risk doesn’t make the risk go away! 38

Risk Management Planning Steps Risk Planning Process Risk Management Planning Steps Step 1 – Review Organization Risk Policy Step 2 – Risk Identification Step 3 – Qualitative Risk Analysis 38

Risk Management Planning Steps Risk Planning Process Risk Management Planning Steps Step 4 – Quantitative Risk Analysis Step 5 – Develop Risk Response Strategy Step 6 – Risk Monitoring & Control 38

Risk Management Planning – Step 1 Review Organization Risk Policy Does this project require assistance from the CREM office? What direction and tools are given in the Project Management On-Line Guide? What is the Risk Profile of the Agency and Project Team? 38

Risk Management Planning – Step 2 Risk Identification Brainstorming Delphi Technique Interviewing 38

Risk Management Planning – Step 2 Risk Identification Root Cause Identification SWOT Analysis Assumption Analysis Diagramming Techniques 38

Risk Management Planning – Step 2 Outcome: Risk Register Status (active, dormant, retired) ID# Date identified & Project Phase 39

Risk Management Planning – Step 2 Outcome: Risk Register Functional Assignment Risk Event (SMART Technique) Risk Trigger 39

Exercise – Risk Identification Risk Identification Exercise As a team identify risk events for either: A Caribbean vacation Building a custom home As a group, select a project and identify potential risk events. Brainstorm potential risks events, use the SMART method to define the risks and root cause identification for the risk trigger. Record on Risk Register. 39

Risk Management Planning – Step 3 Qualitative Risk Analysis Prioritizing risks for subsequent further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact. 40

Risk Management Planning – Step 3 Impact/Probability Matrix A common method/tool to determine whether a risk is considered low, moderate, or high by combining the two dimensions of a risk: its probability of occurrence, and its impact on objectives if it occurs. 40

Impact/Probability Matrix Risk Management Planning – Step 3 Impact/Probability Matrix Incorrect: confusing or combining Impact & Probability “It is very unlikely, therefore the impact is low” Correct: Keep Impact & Probability independent “Probability is low, but if it happens, the project will fail. Therefore the impact is high” 40

Risk Management Planning – Step 3 Using a 2x2 Impact/Probability Matrix Green: Low Risk (Passive Acceptance – workarounds) Yellow: Moderate Risk (Active Acceptance – contingency) Red: High Risk (Risk Response Planning) High Probability Low Low High Impact 40

Risk Management Planning – Step 3 2x2 Impact/Probability Matrix example Risk: Key project team member with specialized skill leaves project team before work is done. Impact: High Probability: Low High Probability X Low Low High Impact Impact Yellow Zone – Moderate Risk 40

Risk Management Planning – Step 3 2x2 Impact/Probability Matrix example Risk: Change to regulatory ordinance requires additional wetland mitigation, requiring additional R/W Impact: High Probability: High X High Probability Low Low High Impact Impact Red Zone – High Risk 40

Risk Management Planning – Step 3 2x2 Impact/Probability Matrix example Risk: Mariners first World Series game is scheduled on the same date as the Environmental Hearing Impact: Low Probability: Low High Probability X Low Low High Impact Impact Green Zone – Low Risk 40

Risk Management Planning – Step 3 Comparative Risk Rating A B C D Risk A – 2 Risk B – 1 Risk C – 3 Risk D – 0 A C C A B C Priority Order: C – A – B – D 41

Exercise – Qualitative Risk Analysis Qualitative Risk Analysis Exercise Using a 2x2 impact & probability matrix, assess the risks identified in the last exercise. First, evaluate the impact of the risk event on the project objectives Then, with the risks identified as “high” impact, assess the probability of the risk event. Perform a comparative risk rating on the “high-high” (red zone) risk events 42

Risk Management Planning – Step 4 Quantitative Risk Analysis The process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on the project’s objectives. (In particular, the project schedule and the project costs). 43

Risk Management Planning – Step 4 Cost Risk Estimating & Management (CREM) Office CRA: Cost Risk Assessment (pg.37) $25 million or more $5 million or more with specific characteristics CEVP®: Cost Estimate Validation Process (pg.37) $100 million or more 43

Risk Management Planning – Step 4 Quantitative Risk Analysis Quantify possible outcomes for the project Assess probability of achieving specific project objectives Identify risks requiring most attention 43

Risk Management Planning – Step 4 Quantitative Risk Analysis Identify realistic and achievable cost, schedule, or scope targets, given project risks Determine best management decision when conditions or outcomes are uncertain 43

Risk Management Planning – Step 4 Quantitative Risk Analysis tools Interviewing (SMEs) Decision Tree Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation 43

Risk Management Planning – Step 4 Quantitative Risk Analysis products Updated Risk Register Probabilistic analysis for project success (time and cost) Updated priority of risk events Trends in risk analysis 43

Risk Management Planning – Step 4 TOTAL PROJECT COSTS Cumulative Chart 100% 90% 75% PROBABILITY 50% 25% 15% Contingency 0% $30m $33m $36m $39m 44 $37.5m COST

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Strategy The process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to the project objectives. 45

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Strategy Proactive, not reactive Appropriate to significance of risk Cost effective Timely 45

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Strategy Realistic within project context Agreed upon by project team and all parties involved Assigned to / owned by a responsible person 45

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Definitions Avoidance – Changing a project objective to eliminate the threat posed by an adverse risk event. 45

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Definitions Transference – Shifting the negative impact of a threat, along with the ownership of the response, to a third party. 45

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Definitions Mitigation – Reducing the Probability or Impact of an adverse risk event (threat) to an acceptable threshold. 45

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Definitions Acceptance – The project team decides not to change project objectives to deal with the risk. Passive acceptance: no action , deal with threats as they occur (workarounds) Active acceptance: establish a contingency reserve to handle risks 45

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Strategy (threats) A T M High Acceptance (workaround) Passive Probability Active Acceptance (or A – T – M) Low Low High Impact 45

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Definitions Exploit – This strategy seeks to eliminate the uncertainty with an opportunity by changing a project objective to ensure it happens. 46

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Definitions Share – Allocating ownership of the positive risk event to a third party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the project. 46

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Definitions Enhance – Increasing the probability and/or positive impact of an opportunity. 46

Risk Management Planning – Step 5 Risk Response Definitions Contingency – Not a risk response, but an output from risk planning. Developed for actively accepted project risks. This is typically defined as time or funds. 46

Exercise – Qualitative Risk Analysis Risk Response Strategy Exercise Using the results from the qualitative analysis from the last exercise: Identify risk response strategies for the “high-high” (red zone) risk events. Decide who will be the responsible person to monitor the risk event and the effectiveness of the risk response Decide if active acceptance or further risk response planning will be required for the “high-low” (yellow zone) risk events. 47

Risk Management Planning – Step 6 Risk Monitoring & Control Managing the Risk Register during the “Work the Plan” phase of the project. Recognize the probability and impact of risk events may change during the life of the project. Also recognizing that additional risks events can be identified during the “Work the Plan”. 48

Risk Management Planning – Step 6 Risk Monitoring & Control Assign a responsible party (ownership) of the risk event. Track risk event status Active/Dormant: risk is currently being monitored and analyzed Retired: risk event (trigger) no longer poses a threat to the project. 48

Risk Management Planning – Step 6 Risk Monitoring & Control Risk Registers should be a standing agenda item for project team meetings. Risk reporting should be an standing reporting item for all project progress reporting WSDOT tools for reporting (PDIS, QPR, GMAP). 48

Monte Carlo Simulation Exercise Risk Management Monte Carlo Simulation Exercise 49