1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” New Hampshire Economic.

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Presentation transcript:

1 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” New Hampshire Economic Forecast January 7, 2013 Dennis Delay Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis Michael Buckley William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Richard Ober James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus John D. Crosier, Sr., Todd I. Selig Kimon S. Zachos Directors Emeritus

2 Anecdotal evidence from Fed Bank of Boston, Nov. 28, 2012 New England reports reflect a growing economy, although the pace has slowed. Retailers cite mixed sales results, manufacturers note slow growth, and software and IT services firms report disappointing results. Staffing firms are seeing a pick-up in growth. Commercial real estate contacts indicate that fundamentals remain flat, and sentiment has soured somewhat in recent weeks. Residential real estate respondents say growth in home sales has slowed, but home prices are rising modestly in some areas. Some firms cite shortages of specialized workers, few are hiring, none extensively, and no one mentions upward wage pressures.

3 Calculated Risk has the clearest picture of the problem we face:

4 3 Themes NH Recovery is Stalling State revenues and the downside risk State Expenditures

5 New Hampshire – Less of a decline, but slow recovery

6 Many NH Employment Sectors Have Not Recovered

7 NH Unemployment Rate Still Higher than Average

88 NH Forecast from May 2008 compared to Dec 2012

99 NH Real Estate May (Finally) Have Hit Bottom

10 NEEP Forecast for New Hampshire Dec Next four years should be better than the last four years. Policy Missteps: Debt Ceiling Fight Club in March 2013? No 2013 recession assuming the Euro sovereign debt crisis is resolved and world economy gains traction. Fed Reserve has foot on the accelerator through 2016 (or until UR hits 6.5%). Foreclosures are no longer a drag. A housing-led recovery.

11 3 Themes NH Recovery is Stalling State revenues and the downside risk State Expenditures

12 This Recession has been very hard on state revenue

13 This Recession was very hard on state revenue forecasts

14 This Recession was very hard on state revenue forecasts

15 NHCPPS Model Showing Revenues are Tracking Well

16 US Economy Alternative Scenarios Stronger Near Term Rebound – Jobs and housing grow more than expected (10% probability) Mild 2 nd Recession – US business confidence drops & Europe debt crisis worsens (25% probability) Deep 2 nd Recession – Hiring falls with stock market decline, Greece leaves Euro-zone, but less severe than the downturn (10% probability) Source: Moody’s Analytics, October 2012

17 NH Revenue Forecasts in an Uncertain World

18 New Hampshire Revenue Growth Lagging Other States Most states saw growth in state tax revenue during 2Q –US Personal Income taxes up 5% –US Sales taxes up 0.7% (Slowest in 2 Years) –US Total state taxes up 3.2% New Hampshire state tax revenue declined by 2% in 2Q Source: Rockefeller Institute (

19 3 Themes NH Recovery is in Danger of Stalling State revenues and the downside risk. State Expenditures

20 State Revenues, Expenditures, and Gross State Product

21 Annualized Growth in Selected Factors Driving State Expenditures

22 Spending Options Grow Narrower “Natural” increases complicate efforts to restore cuts to state programs from the last round of budget-writing. Requests for new spending are significant (UNH, DHHS). A sluggish economy dictates the terms of policy debates.

23 “…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.” New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies Want to learn more? Online: nhpolicy.org Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy Our blog: policyblognh.org (603) Board of Directors Sheila T. Francoeur, Chair David Alukonis Michael Buckley William H. Dunlap Eric Herr Richard Ober James Putnam Stephen J. Reno Stuart V. Smith, Jr. Donna Sytek Brian F. Walsh Martin L. Gross, Chair Emeritus John D. Crosier, Sr., Todd I. Selig Kimon S. Zachos Directors Emeritus

24 State Revenues Grew Because of New Taxes and Non-Tax Sources

25 Two Thirds of NH Revenue Does Not Grow with Economy, or Is Volatile

26 Does New Hampshire Have a Structural Deficit? “New Hampshire can be characterized as having a long-term structural deficit in the sense that for a given scope of programs and revenue system, expenditures grow automatically faster than revenues.” KPMG Peat Marwick February 13, 1992

27 Structural Deficit: So What? Recognize to scale back on state activities OR recognize the necessity to raise tax rates or add new taxes to maintain a constant level of services. Results in more detailed review of all state programs every biennium because there is always a looming shortfall. Creates regular atmosphere of crisis and stress. Reduces possibility of surpluses for investment in desirable one-time projects. Makes long-term strategic planning more difficult. Should not be used as a political weapon to bludgeon the other political party.