East Midlands Growth Prospectus Workshop: An economic perspective Will Rossiter Economic Strategy Research Bureau Nottingham, December 2012

Overview Economic context – recession, depression or zig zag recovery? The productivity puzzle Regional ‘fundamentals’ and long term competitiveness What have we got that ‘ticks Government boxes’?

Quarterly Economic Growth in the UK since Q2 - 09Q2 5 quarters; 6.28% contraction 1990Q3 - 91Q3 5 quarters; 2.93% contraction 1980Q1 - 81Q1 5 quarters; 4.63% contraction 1975Q2 - 75Q3 2 quarters; 1.76% contraction Source: Based on data from Quarterly National Accounts, Table A2, (National Statistics) 2011Q4 - 12Q2 3 quarters; 1.03% contraction 1973Q3 - 74Q1 3 quarters; 3.25% contraction 1956Q1 - 56Q2 2 quarters; 0.31% contraction Average quarterly growth = 0.63% Equivalent to annual growth of 2.54%

Unemployment ILO unemployment rate seasonally adjusted August-October 2012 ONS 12 th December 2012

Labour productivity ONS Labour Productivity Release, September lprod-q212.html

What can we do about it? Concentrate on regional ‘fundamentals’ “..there is international evidence that regions can find a second or third ‘wind’ by understanding their inherent advantages, by examining their historic legacy, by judicious public spending, and in particular by an appreciation of the roles that an educated labour force, high quality infrastructure and in an entrepreneurial/innovative business culture play in influencing regional prosperity.” Ron Martin 2005 “the case for increased public investment in productive infrastructure is overwhelming today, particularly given low interest rates.” Martin Wolf, FT 20/09/12, commenting on the productivity puzzle

The East Midlands “The East Midlands is a region of opportunity. Confidence in its future is founded on its generally diversified economic activity… its past and present level of employment, and the relative absence of the disadvantages associated with massive and congested conurbations.” East Midlands Economic Planning Council 1969 Economic development is path dependent Historic strengths/sources of competitive advantage matter The challenge is to find new and emerging opportunities to which these historic endowments can be applied… 7

Rebalancing? Manufacturing Employment Source: ONS Crown Copyright, 2010 ‘Business Register and Employment Survey’. From NOMIS, 3 rd May, 2012

10 Productivity (East Midlands GVA per FTE, UK=100) Source: Experian Regional Planning Service, 2011

Source: ONS Crown Copyright, ‘Business Register and Employment Survey’. From NOMIS, 3 rd May, 2012 Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right, Manufacturing Employment

Rebalancing? Public Sector Employment Less affected (as a region as a whole), due to other regions having major public sector concentrations (e.g. Sheffield) Public Sector Employment (PSE) fell from 20.1% to 19.2% of total employment in the East Midlands between Q and Q – loss of 15,000 jobs over the period Source: ONS Crown Copyright, Public Sector Employment, Quarter TSO: London. accessed/published 14 th March, 2012.

Coalition Policy – sectors & ‘rebalancing’ Advanced manufacturing –Aerospace & automotive –Life sciences Knowledge intensive traded services –Information economy –Professional & business services –Higher and further education Enabling Sectors –Energy –Construction Industrial Strategy: UK Sector Analysis, BIS, Sept analysis

Further information Will Rossiter Economic Strategy Research Bureau Includes links to recent reports on D2N2 and Nottingham City emda archive