Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Local Economic and Business Performance, and Our Prospects for Growth Adam Peacock Principal Development Officer Research and Information Team Lincolnshire County Council

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Unemployment No. of People Unemployed

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Business Performance – Sales/Orders Stay the Same Increase Decrease

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Business Performance - Exports Stay the Same Increase Decrease

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Business Performance - Profitability Stay the Same Increase Decrease

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Business Performance - Turnover Stay the Same Increase Decrease

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Business Performance - Workforce Stay the Same Increase Decrease

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Stay the Same Increase Decrease Business Performance - Cashflow

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Local Labour Market Indicators IndicatorNo.%England (%) Working age people627,000 Working age people in employment447, Employees385,70087 Self employed59,80013 Not in employment180, Economically inactive143,10023 Economically inactive who want a job35, Economically inactive who do not want a job107, Source: Annual Population Survey

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Skills Levels Source: Annual Population Survey % % of the working age population with NVQ level 3+

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Population data Source: Office for National Statistics - Population has increased from approximately 960,000 to 1,040,000 - Population has grown by 9% over the last decade compared to 8% nationally

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Source: Office of National Statistics Active Enterprises per 10,000 population

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Wage Levels Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings £3,277 £2,836

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Economic Value Source: Office for National Statistics

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth GVA per head Source: Office for National Statistics

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth What we said back in March 2012 A lagging economy when based on GVA per head, but positive signs in the last 4/5 years Other measures put the Greater Lincolnshire economy on a more positive footing Wage and qualification levels improving Emerging industries (e.g. environmental technologies, renewables) Ageing population presents opportunities

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth What about now and in to the future? -Back into recession (double dip) -Economic uncertainty -Conference season -Cashflow / lending problems persist -Longer term forecast is one of growth

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Real UK GDP 2005=100 Source: Office for National Statistics

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Looking Ahead Actual data Forecast Source: Office for National Statistics, Office for Budget Responsibility

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Where is this growth going to come from? Looking to the future, the Greater Lincolnshire LEP prospectus highlights a number of growth or most important sectors for the Greater Lincolnshire economy: -Agri-food -Manufacturing / Engineering -Visitor Economy -Care -Ports & Logistics -Renewables

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Agri-Food Key Facts & Stats -Distinctive feature of the Greater Lincolnshire area -Strategically important both locally, nationally and internationally -Covers primary production, food processing, wholesale, and retail (plus activities around agricultural engineering and packaging) -Employs approximately 78,000 people -18% of total employment compared to 10% nationally -Generates approximately 11% of total economic value

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Agri-Food Actual dataForecast No. in Employment Source: Office for National Statistics, Defra Agricultural Survey, emda Experian Forecasting Model

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Engineering Key Facts & Stats -Has a number of strong growth sectors -Employs approximately 14,500 people -3% of total employment in line with national average -Generates approximately 4% of total economic value

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Engineering Actual dataForecast No. in Employment Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Visitor Economy -Distinctive feature of the Greater Lincolnshire area -Employs approximately 39,400 people -9% of total employment compared to 10% nationally -Generates approximately 4% of total economic value

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Visitor Economy Actual dataForecast No. in Employment Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Care -Covers hospital, medical and dental practice, and social work activities -Employs approximately 59,600 people -14% of total employment compared to 12% nationally -Generates approximately 9% of total economic value

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Care Actual dataForecast No. in Employment Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Ports & Logistics -Distinctive feature of the Greater Lincolnshire area -Employs approximately 17,300 people -4% of total employment compared to 2% nationally -Generates approximately 4% of total economic value

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Ports & Logistics No. in Employment Actual dataForecast Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth Renewables -Emerging industry and difficult to measure -Data suggests substantial growth -Approx 150 companies engaged in renewable energy and environmental activities across the area. -Activities range from installers of solar PV panels, to plastics recycling and manufacturers of electric car batteries. -The LRO is lobbying for a government definition of the sector

Lincolnshire Research Observatory Local Performance and Prospects for Growth In Summary In the short term the national and local economies face continued uncertainty and a number of challenges to growth Longer term prospects are better, and locally certain sectors present real potential Longer term challenges remain, particularly around skills and our traditional industries