SASIG National Aviation Policy Review - Input to Scoping Report SASIG & Department for Transport (DfT) Engagement Event 19 January 2011

SASIG UK Aviation Policy – Past Present & Future similarities and differences as UK aviation policy has developed driving forces at each stage factors for consideration in today’s discussions

SASIG Aviation legislation (1/3) Dec Command Paper on British Air Services July 1948 report by Select Committee on Estimates July 1963 Committee on the Problem of Noise, Final Report (Cmnd 2056) 1966 Airport Authority Act Feb Airports Policy White Paper (Labour) Dec Report of the Advisory Committee on Airports Policy

SASIG Aviation legislation (2/3) June 1985 Airports Policy White Paper (Conservative) 1986 Airports Act 1990 RUCATSE Study – Runway Capacity to serve the South-East; reported in July 1993 Feb Government response to RUCATSE May 1996 Transport Select Committee report ‘UK Airport Capacity’ July 1998 Transport White Paper

SASIG Aviation legislation (3/3) Dec White Paper - The Future of Air Transport (ATWP) 2006 Civil Aviation Act [Oct Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change] [Dec Eddington Transport Study] Dec ATWP Progress Report [2008 Climate Change Act] Dec Committee on Climate Change Aviation Report

SASIG Airports Act 1986 (Ch. 31) An Act to provide for the dissolution of the British Airports Authority and the vesting of its property, rights and liabilities in a company nominated by the Secretary of State; to provide for the reorganisation of other airport undertakings in the public sector; to provide for the regulation of the use of airports and for the imposition of economic controls at certain airports; ……

SASIG Airports Act 1986 (Ch. 31) …..to make other amendments of the law relating to airports; to make provision with respect to the control of capital expenditure by local authority airport undertakings; and for connected purposes. [8th July 1986]

SASIG Air Transport White Paper 2003 “The Government recognises the benefits that the expansion in air travel has brought to people's lives and to the economy of this country. Its increased affordability has opened up the possibilities of foreign travel for many people, and it provides the rapid access that is vital to many modern businesses. But…..

SASIG Air Transport White Paper 2003 ….we have to balance those benefits against the environmental impacts of air travel, in particular the growing contribution of aircraft emissions to climate change and the significant impact that airports can have on those living nearby.”

SASIG DRIVING FORCES Passenger growth – currently around 6% per annum – is not slowing down to 3% or 4% as was forecast iIf not constrained by airport capacity, air travel demand at UK airports is forecast to grow strongly under the central case, from 241 million passengers per annum (mppa) in 2007 to 465mppa in 2030 (within the range mppa). UK Air Passenger Demand and CO 2 Forecasts, DfT, Jan WHEN GROWTH PICKS UP AGAIN the estimate of 500 mppa will be reached in 2021 not 2030 There could be 780 mppa by 2030

SASIG Civil Aviation Authority UK Airport Statistics (

SASIG THE BIG ISSUES Aviation growth is booming ahead – good or bad? The economic benefits are substantial but so is the environmental impact Passengers are enjoying more/cheaper flights High growth means more global warming Communities around airports will experience higher levels of air and noise pollution More pressure on our congested road and rail network

SASIG Central questions: Whether or not new airport capacity should be provided? If yes….. how much? where? what mitigation measures will be taken?

SASIG Environment "The main environmental effects of aviation are those of aircraft noise and aircraft emissions. The former largely affect areas at and around airports, the latter can have both local effects on air quality and global effects on climate. These problems are becoming more serious as aviation continues to grow at rates that outstrip the ability of technological and operational improvements in environmental performance to keep pace." European Commission – air transport webpages

SASIG Inclusion of non-CO 2 effects UK Government aviation target – CO 2 emissions from UK aviation in 2050 should be at or below 2005 levels – excludes non-CO 2 effects of aviation Considerable scientific uncertainty However, it is important to account for non-CO 2 effects of aviation in future international policy framework & UK emissions reductions Committee on Climate Change Aviation Report, Dec (Exec. Sum. pg.9)

SASIG UK Government aviation target – CO 2 emissions from UK aviation in 2050 should be at or below 2005 levels could be met in concert with 55% increase in air transport movements (from 2005 level) if achieve annual carbon intensity reduction of around 0.9% (from biofuels and fleet fuel efficiency) 60% increase in passenger numbers (from 2005 level) assuming load factors increase CCC Aviation Report – the future

SASIG Capacity expansion options 55% increase in ATMs (from 2005 level) is around 3.4 million, 2005 level was 2.2 million Total current theoretical capacity at UK airports is 5.6 million ATMs However available capacity is not the only consideration – geographical spread, accessibility, choice, services, integration, etc.

SASIG UK Passenger Forecasts to 2030

SASIG Policy options The broad options are: UNCONSTRAINED GROWTH LIMITED GROWTH SELECTIVELY LOCATED GROWTH ENVIRONMENTALLY CONTROLLED GROWTH

SASIG Future policy negotiations Need these to be at all levels - domestic, regional (EU), and international – and need to cover: aviation’s non-CO 2 climate change emissions – NOx, cirrus, contrails developed and developing countries