managing risk - terms ► hazardprocess, various perils e.g. flood where is it? what depth? ► exposureasses, thing at risk e.g. housewhere is it? what characteristics? ► vulnerabilityresponse of asset to hazard, e.g. strengthhow strong is the roof? ► riskhazard x exposure x vulnerability has monetary value portfolio of risks varies spatially / temporally

managing risk – gis / visualization ► gi modelling in insurance industry hazardnatural environment models / applications exposuresocial science for people riskcombination : uncertainty /decisions ► visualization / visual analytics scientistsunderstanding complex models analystsquantifying risk, managing risk portfolios publiccommunication to disparate groups

managing risk - willis ► hail storm model : space / time space / time varying hazardstorms space / time varying exposurevehicles space / time varying riskstorms x vehicles tools required to : understand models / assumptions make decisions communicate results ► business case for funding to NERC / TSB ► EU FP7 – ‘hazard’ theme

challenges / opportunities ► time ► scale ► first law / autocorrelation gi algorithms ► data (scalability)? open new types community contributed ► cartography ► IMPLEMENTATION socio-technical collaboration software infrastructures ► the time challenge ► the scale challenge ► the first law opportunity ► the data challenge ► data opportunities ► cartographic challenges ► the uncertainty problem …

the CARTOGRAPHY opportunity … ► design patterns – maps / history ► knowledge of how people use maps perception / cog ► expectation / use people now maps ► symbolism / primitives / design ► generalisation / abstraction ► interaction ► [THEORY]! SOME empirical evidence ► new possibilities >> design for large datasets >> design for time infoviz / geo / spatial structure ► extend knowledge ► interaction ► *THEORY*! dynamic interaction LITTLE empirical evidence e.g. “neuroscience” representation

the TIME challenge … ► not dealt with well in GI / cartography ► single ‘variable’ approach ► successes? ► some typologies (examples) ► some cartographic knowledge (Harrower?) ► we can do better work (e.g. dynamism in risk) ► additional dimension / multivariate ► multiple (and different) … variables dimensions scale (cyclical?) ► account for different : structures models ► time is different … to other variables to space! ► prediction / simulation ► states vs. events

the SCALE challenge … ► processes operate at multi scales ► discrete – some success ► processes operate at different scales ► tasks relate to particular scales ► we may understand processes better ► integrating multiple scales time space ► better decisions ► MAU problem? opportunity? ► continuous

CONTEXT : the FIRST LAW opportunity … ► context for geoVA geo is the focus ► geo-analysis buffers? overlay? networks? UCSB 99 concepts! ► interpolation / extrapolation ► inference ► framework for tacit knowledge ► constraint things are in places ► metaphor … similarity = distance so popular … that InfoVis is trying to use it all the time interdisciplinary glue ► but … does the distance proximity metaphor hold? (networks / barriers, etc.)

the DATA (SOURCES) challenge … ► open ► new types ► community contributed ► geo-computation ► sensors ► geo-referencing multimedia / qualitative text / documents ► data quality, metadata missings ► data streams / real time ► data fusion / conflation scale, time, projection, classification, ontology INSPIRE / EU / AGILE (EU differentiating factor?) ► masses of data ► little geo in KDD ► is a completely new old methodology

the IMPLEMENTATION challenge … ► socio-technical ► collaboration ► software infrastructures ► tasks ► users scale / spatial cognition ► storytelling geoDA? oecd eXplorer? vizTrails? ► doc of process ► annotation ► provenance ► no-one uses geoViz? ► no material results ► outputs are difficult to act on ► ideation / synthesis / communication ► weather success story?

GENERAL | RECOMMENDATIONS? ► work on each of the problems / opportunities cartography time scale data implementation ► uncertainty ► prediction ► design ► education? – eu might like this? cartography education experience?

plan ► motivation ► SCENARIOS – risk? new data sets? ► context / first law opportunities cartographychallenge / opportunity scale | spatialchallenge / opportunity timechallenge / opportunity datachallenge / opportunity implementationchallenge / opportunity ► context / first law challenges ► SCENARIOS? ► recommendations