RAF Technical Overview What is “risk”? “a situation involving exposure to danger” (Oxford) Combination of: Likelihood of occurrence X Consequences of occurrence Definition What is risk, in the context of forest pest management? It is the product of: Likelihood of occurrence X Consequences of occurrence It’s a simple as that!

NFPS Risk Analysis Framework Common approach Enhances understanding – nature of risks Identifies critical factors Utilizes evidence Addresses gaps and uncertainties Promotes collaboration on shared risks Description from RA TAG Key elements, etc – why do it? With this approach, we should be able to make better (science-based) management & policy decisions. Also, can make judgements on which forest pests will be more detrimental. Eg. Is SBW worse than MPB? What kind of impacts can we expect and where? Results in transparent and accountable public policy and decisions in natural resource management

High-level diagram There are 3 separate components to the RA framework: Risk Assessment, Risk Response, Risk Communication. And they are 3 different concepts and should be thought of that way. In Risk Assessment, you characterize the risks and the uncertainty associated with those risks. In Risk Response, you identify and evaluate options for dealing with the risks. In Risk Communication, you communicate information associated with the risks to the relevant people. Now, the NFPS RAF is a general framework that should apply equally well to native pests or aliens; as well as to different triggers.

Some concepts and terms… Likelihood of occurrence where? when? Consequences of occurrence what? Lets explore some important terms and concepts that are important in risk analysis and in this framework. Likelihood of occurrence: “where” is the forest pest going to be? “when” is it going to be there? Consequences of occurrence: “what” is it going to do when it gets there?

Some concepts and terms… Transparency “easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious” (Collins) operating in such a way that it is easy for others to see what actions are taken, and why Transparency : “easy to see through, understand, or recognize; obvious” Our RA Framework/process should be transparent --- no black box.

Some concepts and terms… Ecosystem services “benefits people obtain from ecosystems ” (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005) examples: carbon sequestration water and air purification nutrient dispersal and cycling industrial products recreation energy Ecosystem services benefits people obtain from ecosystems It is valuable to consider consequences of insect and diseases in our forests in terms of impacts on “ecosystem services”

Some concepts and terms… Trigger - forest pest threat of some kind Triggers pest We talk about triggers in risk analysis. There are different “things” that can “trigger” a risk analysis for forest pests Trigger – a forest pest threat of some kind. We classify as follows: Pest – the existence or potential existence of a particular pest may trigger a risk analysis. The focus of the RA is the specific pest. Commodity – in the case of commodities or products from the forest, a particular commodity may be the trigger and focus of the RA. In this case, we would focus on the commodity itself and consider all of the pests (perhaps as groups) that are a with that particular commodity. Pathways – are ways in which pests can be introduced into an area. For example, wood packaging material for internationally transported goods. In this case the RA would look at all potential threats associated with that pathway. Ecosystem – one might consider all of the pests issues that may be a threat to a particular ecosystem. In this case, the particular ecosystem is the focus of the RA such that one would look at factors in the ecosystem that might make the ecosystem at risk. pathway/commodity ecosystem

Increasing numbers of pathways Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activities World Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriers Global trade dramatically increased during 20th Century Lets talk about Pathways… In recent years there has been an increasing number of pathways... Plant pests have always been spread via man’s activities The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has broken down trade barriers And global trade dramatically increased during 20th Century

Increasing numbers of pathways Here we see a graphical representation of exports of merchandise from 1950-2003. This graph shows time on the x-axis 1950-2003, the value of exports in trillions of US dollars on the left y-axis, and the share of the world gross domestic product (GDP) on the right y-axis. Both values increase dramatically over the time span of 53 years. This graph shows that not only did the value of trade increase but reliance on trade did as well. Source: WTO data http://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch5en/conc5en/worldexports.html

Pathway Any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest; could be… an imported commodity a means of transportation or storage packaging, or other articles associated with the commodity a natural means of spread (e.g., wind) A commodity is a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposes A pathway, therefore, may be any number of things. The first thing we think of when we think of pathways is a commodity, but in reality, a commodity is a sub-category of pathway. While a pathway is “any means that allow the entry or spread of a pest”, a commodity is “a plant or plant product being moved for trade or other purposes”. In our previous slide, then, the logs were the commodity, but both the logs and the tractor could have been a pathway. In the picture here, we see a commodity – fresh Edelweiss blossoms -- that are clearly a pathway for spread as we can see a snail in the corner of the box which has crawled out of the bundle of foliage during transport and is trapped in the box. When a commodity is the initiation point for the PRA, the NPPO should consider any associated materials, such as packing or shipping requirements, that together will comprise the pathway.

Examples A request to import something that has not previously been imported from the proposed country of origin A different end-use is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported A new treatment is proposed for a commodity that is already being imported An interception is made Live pests are found on a previously unidentified pathway or commodity

Pathway Description The more you know about the pathway, the more accurate the PRA will be and the more effective or appropriate any subsequent phytosanitary measures will be Ask questions Consider all aspects of pathway Get detailed descriptions Understand it

SBW RA case study - Triggers Looming ESBW outbreak in eastern Quebec losses experienced in the previous outbreak would have a significant negative impact on wood supply today forestry landscape has changed since the last OB limited protection options available Needed a real life case for development of the framework

MPB RA case study - Triggers

SOD RA case study - Triggers

-- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993 Setting Objectives -- A common context for Pest RA – Adapted from Suter 1993 Management goals broad objectives carry a social mandate e.g. maintain healthy forest ecosystems Assessment endpoints translate mgmt goals into conceptual model satisfy social objectives e.g. maintain expected supply of timber; other values Setting objectives ‘for the risk analysis’ is influenced by the specific context of the issue. Endpoints – expressions of the values we want to protect They can be endpoints that refer to the values (e.g. absolute or change-in), the threat (e.g. limited spread ), anything really. Measurement endpoints operational definitions can be measured e.g. black spruce growing stock; mature conifer habitat

Setting Objectives Endpoints biologically relevant important to society unambigously defined operationally feasible predictable and measurable susceptible to hazard Suter 1993

Setting Objectives Scope (of the RA) Objectives Resources Time The scope of a particular risk analysis is defined by 3 things… Each of these 3 things is set by the “context” of the issue (endpoints)… mainly, who is paying for the RA? Any 2 of these things determines the other. So if you set 2 of them, the other is automatically determined. Resources Time

Setting Objectives Objectives can be… statements of desired outcomes of the RA questions to be answered

Case studies’ experience… Setting Objectives Case studies’ experience… Setting objectives

ESBW case study - Objectives Setting Objectives ESBW case study - Objectives Consultation with MRNQ Synthesis of research knowledge Likely impacts of various stand types Intervention options Evaluate preventative measures Objectives of MRNQ: - Literature review of recent and comprehensive publications on SBW (apply information/knowledge of past outbreaks to the current situation) - SBW impacts in various populations Uneven-aged stands and old residual forests Impact on pre-established regeneration/in the seed bank Intervention options (preventative measures, collection, spraying, preventive spraying, doing nothing, etc) Evaluating efficiency of preventative measures (management of mature stands, upswing, pre-recuperation, etc) Prioritisation of populations to harvest/treat SBWDSS PROPS as a decision-making tool? Development scenario analyses as a tool? Others… Evaluate SBW DSS as a tool Contribute to dev of NFPS RA Framework