Saskatchewan: Not Just Your Parents’ Prairie Province Eric Howe Professor of Economics University of Saskatchewan

Four points:

Personal Saving Rates Show the Continuing Evolution of Saskatchewan’s Economy Saskatchewan will become more Aboriginal faster than many realize Saskatchewan will become less Agricultural than many realize Saskatchewan’s labour market will become scarcely recognizable

Acknowledgements University of Saskatchewan A Number of Governments and NGO’s A Number of Corporations My Economic Forecasting Students

Personal Saving Rates Show The Continuing Evolution of Saskatchewan’s Economy

Saskatchewan will become more Aboriginal faster than most people realize Aboriginal percentage of provincial population Aboriginal percentage of provincial population

What proportion of our young adults will be Aboriginal in 2016? According to the Census of 2006, Aboriginal People made up 23% of Saskatchewan’s population aged By the Census of 2016, that cohort will be young adults, aged Will 23% of Saskatchewan’s young adults be Aboriginal in 2016?

You can make good arguments that the 23% will decrease In-migration Somewhat surprisingly, this argument is fairly weak even with the boom

You can make good arguments that the 23% will increase 23% is an underestimate Registered Indians in Saskatchewan 90,720 according to the 2006 Census 90,720 according to the 2006 Census 123,017 according to the Indian Register By 2016 the Saskatchewan labour-market will be fundamentally different than today, lowering net migration

By 2016, 23% of Saskatchewan’s young adults will be Aboriginal That is about one in four 2016 is not far away If we lose the current generation of Aboriginal Youth the result will be social turmoil like Saskatchewan hasn’t experienced since the Great Depression

Gentle question for Aboriginal-Majority-Skeptics 2001 Census: Aboriginal females made up 15% of the female population of childbearing age in our province In the subsequent five years, 29% of provincial babies were Aboriginal These babies will grow up and begin to have their own babies by the 2021 Census

Fill-in-the-blank question for Aboriginal-Majority-Skeptics 15 is to 29 as 29 is to ____

Saskatchewan employment will become less agricultural

Saskatchewan income cannot become much less agricultural

Saskatchewan’s labour market will become scarcely recognizable The labour market had better become increasingly Aboriginal Provincial employment is about to stop growing, except maybe in Regina

The labour market is becoming increasingly Aboriginal

2009: The Year We Raced Backward

Since: Some Recovery, Then More Disaster

Saskatchewan’s labour market will become scarcely recognizable The labour market had better become increasingly Aboriginal Provincial employment is about to stop growing, except maybe in Regina

Saskatchewan: Not Just Your Parents’ Prairie Province Eric Howe Professor of Economics University of Saskatchewan