ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ONTARIO C-CIARN – ONTARIO DECEMBER 5, 2002

C-CIARN Mission The National, Regional and Sectoral C-CIARN Coordinating Offices will build a network of climate change researchers and stakeholders, facilitate research, and help to provide voice and visibility to impacts and adaptation issues.

C-CIARN Structure Fisheries ( Office at DFO Nanaimo) Health ( Office at HC Ottawa ) Forest ( Office at CFS Edmonton) Coastal Zone (Office at BIO Dartmouth) Landscape Hazards (Office at GSC Ottawa) Water Resources ( Office at McGill U., Montreal) Quebec ( Office at Ouranos, Montreal) Ontario (Office at Laurentian U, Sudbury) British Columbia (Office at UBC, Vancouver) Atlantic (Office at Dalhousie U., Halifax) Prairies (Office at PARC, U. of Regina) North ( Office at Northern Climate Exchange, Whitehorse ) Yukon NWT Nunavut C-CIARN Board Steering Committee National C-CIARN Coordinating Office SectorsRegions Advisory Committee Prov/Terr agencies Universities Communities NGOs Private Sector Federal Depts. Agriculture ( Office at U. of Guelph)

258 communities with population > 1,000 Range in size from 1,005 to 1.56M 13 communities>100,000 7 communities50,000 – 99, communities 10,000 – 49, communities1,000 – 9,999 Communities in Ontario Stats Canada, 2001 census Large urban centres, medium-sized cities, towns and rural communities will vary in both the climate change challenges they will face AND their capacity to address those challenges

Average Temperature, with the Canadian model [scenario IS92a (2xCO 2 in 2060)] ( Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada ) Long Term Temperature Changes km with respect to with respect to with respect to

Projected Winter Precipitation Change Between and Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model Some increased winter precipitation over Ontario More rain – less snow

Projected Summer Precipitation Change Between and Combined Effects of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulphate Aerosol Increases - Canadian Model Changed summer precipitation - droughts - food production Also - changes in extremes

Lakes Michigan- Huron X X Lake Ontario Great Lakes Water Levels Current & Projected Ranges X Average, X Projected for 2XCO2, assuming no change in natural variability (CCC GCMII from Morstch & Quinn, 1996) X Lake Erie X Lake Superior X X 1 metre drop in lake level possible X X

Droughts and Low Water Levels severe drought low lake levels; beached harbours groundwater supply concerns some years comparable to 1930s; worse than 1960s

Impacts on Agriculture Changes warmer temperatures drier or wetter increased frequency of extreme events enhanced atmospheric CO 2 Positive Increased productivity from warmer temps and enhanced CO 2 Longer growing seasons Accelerated maturation rates Possibility of growing new crops Negative Increased insect infestations Crop damage from extreme heat Increased moisture stress and drought Decreased herbicide and pesticide efficacy Increased soil erosion

AdaptationPurpose Crop DevelopmentBreed new varieties and hybrids to cop with changes in climate and environment Crop SelectionTo take advantage of crops that potentially suited to the new conditions such as a longer growing season Farm Production PracticesDiversify crop and livestock types and varieties. Land UseLocate crops and livestock in Ontario to suit the environmental variations and economic risks

AdaptationPurpose Shorten rotation lengths where appropriate Harvest chronically stressed stands of low vigour and slower growth rates that are susceptible to insect and disease Plant drought - adapted species and genotypes Regenerate drought-prone habitats with deeply-rooted species; select and breed drought-tolerant genotypes Plant climate - adapted species Introduce southern species beyond recent northern range limits when temperature averages and extremes have warmed sufficiently

Adaptation Process Understanding Vulnerability Engage stakeholders Those affected Key decision makers Use experience to assess impacts and damages Assess current vulnerability Climate / environment Socioeconomic Policy and development Project future conditions Develop / implement appropriate policies / practices

Climate Impacts in the Hudson Bay Lowlands