2007 Annual Meeting ● Assemblée annuelle 2007 Vancouver 2007 Annual Meeting ● Assemblée annuelle 2007 Vancouver Mortality Improvement

Agenda Historical improvement Canada-Hardy’s paper Difference with the USA Improvement by cause of deaths Future improvement

Hardy Study Population data: Insured data: (Ultimate only) No smoking status before 1992 Insured data less reliable as influenced by underwriting requirements changes over the period covered.

Hardy Study

Improvement rates are ultimate and aggregate –Lack of data does not permit select rates, nor smoker distinct rates. –Projection of mortality improvement for periods longer than 25 years should be regarded with great caution. –Cohort effect may exist but impact is mild.

Historical Mortality Improvement Rates: Hardy Study ( )

Mortality Improvement Canada Male Population Female Population

US vs Canada

Smoking cessation Source: Pampel, F. (2002). Cigarette use and narrowing sex differential in mortality. Population and Devleopment Review, v28 n1, pp77-104

Improvement-Causes of Death 5-10% of deaths at key ages

Improvement-Causes of Death 35-50% of deaths at key ages

Improvement-Causes of Death 5-10% of deaths at key ages

CHD-drugs RX: –Statins Decrease cholesterol levels –Anti angina Calcium channel Inhibitors, nytro,... –Beta blockers Cardiac arrhythmia, hypertension

Improvement-Causes of Death Source: Ford & al. (2007): Explaining the Decrease in U.S. Deaths from Coronary Disease, 1980–2000, NEJM vol 356, June 7,2007

Improvement-Causes of Death Source: Ford & al. (2007): Explaining the Decrease in U.S. Deaths from Coronary Disease, 1980–2000, NEJM vol 356, June 7,2007

Future Mortality improvement vs death rate –No correlation

Future-Smoking Proportion of smokers seems to have reach a plateau

Future-Obesity Obesity –Potentially big impact –However only a secondary risk factor –Indirect impact on mortality

Future-Obesity

Impact on life insurance –Will probably keep increasing unless major changes in behaviors. Government campaigns? Research? –Risk factors for CVD have decreases over the last 40 years, except for diabetes, and this for all levels of BMI *. * JAMA, April 20, 2005 – Vol 293, No. 15

Future- Advanced Medical Research Stem cell Research Cellular rejuvenation –Repair broken telomeres Cancer

Update on Mortality Improvement Sub-committee Goal: Propose mortality improvement basis for annuity and life insurance valuation Current draft of proposal: – Best estimate improvement scales would be the same for life insurance and for annuity business – Mortality Improvement assumption would have it’s own PfAD (insurance and annuity PfADs would be in opposite directions) – Mortality improvement rates based on Hardy’s paper (Data from 1921 to 2002)

Questions