Does anything Emerge? CSS Interaction Task A review on the state of the art in the understanding, modelling and formal description of emergence

Why Aims to define the broad directions which a research program on Emergence should follow in order to deepen our theoretical understanding to bring Emergence concepts and tools into the arsenal of physical, natural and social scientists

What has been done Call for material/ideas/collaborations via CSS_Ideas mailing list Considerable reading Production of a working draft Preliminary session at the 2004 CSS workshop Submission of a short paper to the KES conference ( Knowledge-Based & Intelligent Information & Engineering Systems, Melbourne Sept 2005 ) Main workshop, May 05 Manuscript Preparation

Actual outcomes A better understanding of the concept – I think so.. listen on.. Document/Web site open to CSIRO and others, e.htm short paper to the KES conference /emergence_kes_final.pdf Review Paper Research Program Paper under development

Interaction Outcomes crucial input from Cosma Shalizi and Daniel Polani close interaction between 4 members (FB, Mikhail Prokopenko, IM, AMG) in draft preparation close interaction between 16 members at main workshop Strongly multidisciplinary approach (biologists, chemists, computer scientists, applied maths, physicists, social scientists, and engineers) Exposure to the “The Pacific Institute of Theoretical Physics (PITP) workshop on ‘Emergence’, May 2005, Vancouver, BC”

Review / Research Program Paper Approach Information Theoretic Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction” Difference between emergence, complexity and self organization How Cosma’s definition could be implemented and tested on a set of real problems

Review / Research Program Paper Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction” “The efficiency of prediction of a process is the ratio between its excess entropy and its statistical complexity, e =E/C.” E=Excess Entropy the mutual information between two adjacent semi-infinite blocks of variables -> measure of the apparent memory or structure in the system -> we may think of it as the fraction of historical memory stored in the process which does “useful work" in the form of telling us about the future.

Review / Research Program Paper Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction ” “e =E/C ---- How to calculate E” Excess Entropy Entropy Density

Review / Research Program Paper Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction ” “The efficiency of prediction of a process is the ratio between its excess entropy and its statistical complexity, e =E/C.” C= Statistical Complexity Entropy of the process Casual States -> We may think of it as a measure of the amount of memory required for optimal prediction.

Review / Research Program Paper 1)Generate a causal state machine ( CSSR algorithm, for example ) 2)Calculate entropy of the e-machine Cosma Shalizi’s “Ease of predictability” “e =E/C ---- How to calculate C”

Review / Research Program Paper Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction ”

Review / Research Program Paper Given 2 levels of representation, we say one level ‘emerges’ from the other if it has greater predictive efficiency. Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction”

Review / Research Program Paper What is good about it? 1)It is non trivial 2)It removes ‘magic’ from the concept (‘cannot be explained’, ‘is not displayed’, etc) 3)it is computable (albeit in limited cases) 4)it distinguishes Emergence from Complexity and Self Organisation Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction”

Review / Research Program Paper Complexity= amount of information necessary for optimal prediction Self-organisation = spontaneous increase of complexity in time Emergence = E/C Adaptivity=Increase of Mutual Information between a system and the environment

Review / Research Program Paper What might be missing? 1)Not always computable 2)Emergence/Complexity/Self-Organisation are different, but what is the relation between them? 3)How do we account creation of ‘novelty’ and ‘diversity’? (surprise effect) 4)How does Emergence arise? 5)Are there different classes of Emergence? Cosma Shalizi’s “The efficiency of prediction”

Review / Research Program Paper Motivation Justification for an information theoretical approach Ordering of emergence phenomena Drivers and conditions for Emergence Detection of Emergence Modelling of Emergence Research agenda –how to construct emergence –Designing desired emergence properties; –Mechanism for emergence –Boundaries –How we use it Paper Organisation

What next? Finish the paper and submit Possible relation to UD, Memes and generation of follow up IT? (David Batten?) Results, tools, insights feeding into CSS projects –Network Theory IT –Model Structure Delineation of a research program –Detection –Design for emergence –The role of system boundaries –Mechanism for Emergence –How to use it

Some Conclusions Information Theoretic approach Emergence as relation between levels of representations Emergence as increase efficiency of prediction Definition of a research program on the topic

Some Conclusions Did we interact? Yes Did we learn something? Yes Did we contribute something useful? –We took a unpublished definition –We challenged it –We planned how to test it on real cases –How to extend it to different disciplines

All material currently available at /CSS_emergence.htm