Linkages & Synergies of Regional & Global Emissions Control Terry J. Keating, PhD Office of Air & Radiation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Synergies & Linkages LRTAP Convention sits at an intersection. LocalRegionalGlobal

Synergies & Linkages LRTAP Convention sits at an intersection. The linkages are –Physical –Technological –Economic –Political LocalRegionalGlobal

Materials Human Health Crops Forests Visibility Aesthetics Marine Ecosystems Terrestrial Ecosystems Surface Waters Biogenics Geogenics Residential Commercial Transport Industry Agriculture Electricity SourcesReceptors Climate CO 2 CO VOCs NO X NH 3 SO 2 N Deposition Acidifying Deposition Other GHG Hg POPs Secondary Aerosols Tropospheric O 3 Soot Smoke CH 4 Dust Pollutants Adapted from Grennfelt, Hov, & Derwent (1994) Ambio, 23:

Central Issue for TFIAM Historical Partitioning of Issues –Focus on Regional “Transboundary” Nature of Air Pollution Current Pressure to Link to Other Spatial Scales –Must take linkages into account to accurately predict futures at regional scale –Must take synergies into account to develop least cost policies –Must understand differences in the problems at each scale

What is Needed Nested System of Atmospheric Models Capable of Linking Local to Global Scales Dynamic Effects Models Capable of Accounting for Changes in Multiple Stressors at Local to Global Scales Consistent Future Scenarios across Global to Local Scales

What is Needed Nested System of Atmospheric Models Capable of Linking Local to Global Scales Dynamic Effects Models Capable of Accounting for Changes in Multiple Stressors at Local to Global Scales Consistent Future Scenarios across Global to Local Scales Economics, Technology, and Policy Scenarios Emissions Scenarios

Relationship to Policy Insights v. Obligations The “Comprehensive Solution” –Why do we partition policy problems? –Comprehensive v. Tractable –Incremental Expansion of LRTAP –Role as a Catalyst v. Solution Policy will be driven by enlightened self-interest. –Need to translate “global” linkages into local costs.