Regional Studies Association Conference Winter 2013 “Mobilising Regions: Territorial Strategies for Growth” Will Strategic Housing Market Assessments in England be given an appropriate role? Theme : Cooperation, disputes and resistance around particular territorial development strategies, models, and interventions Dr Martin Field & Dr Bob Colenutt, University of Northampton, UK Prof Allan Cochrane, Open University, UK

PRESENTATION CONTENT SHMA policy in the UK Focus of SHMA practice SHMAs in ESRC study Reports in study area Drawbacks in practice 2013 amendments Unaddressed shortfalls Suggestions for change Conclusions

SHMA objectives in the UK Key objectives of SHMA [DCLG, 2007]: to enable practitioners to assess housing need and demand in their areas to enable local authorities and regions to gain a good appreciation of the characteristics of housing market areas and how they function.

Focus of SHMA practice ‘HMA’ = “geograph[ies] defined by household demand and preference for housing” ‘Demand’ = housing required for sale or rent ‘Need’ = unable to access housing without assistance Develop long-term strategic views.... [and] appraise strategic options To think spatially Deliver “robust and credible” reports Typical core outputs (MKC) : - Estimates of current dwellings - Analysis of past & current market trends - Estimate future number of households - Estimate of current households in need - Estimate of households requiring market housing - Estimate of the size of affordable housing required - Estimate of household groups who have particular requirements

SHMAs in ESRC study (1) Study area is a part of two previous UK regions (UK government does not now support ‘regional’ concept) East Midlands region, with Northamptonshire containing seven local councils, in two HMAs South East region, containing the unitary authority of Milton Keynes in an HMA by itself

SHMAs in ESRC study (2) Dates of assessments : - NN 2007 / 2012 update - WN MK 2008 / 2013 update Context from Regional Plans, and feeding into Core Spatial Strategies Individual local authorities tied into joint collaborative work and data collections

Indicative reports in study area Projections of population and growth Use of primary or secondary data Role of affordable housing ++ Single adult households increasing Unpalatable results to suppliers Influence from government policy

Drawbacks in SHMA practice SHMAs as useful aid to ‘territorial development’? Inconsistent approach to practical assessments ‘Needs’ based model not inclusive of wider ‘market drivers’ Debates on “robust & credible” : results amended to suit local stakeholders Small scope to steer meaningful ‘interventions’

Government amendments 2012/3 Retained role in National Planning Policy Framework New SHMA draft: assess “housing & economic development needs” Evidence future quantity of market and affordable units Include housing scale, mix & tenure across the market Separate draft of new duty for “land assessment” Market areas to be now deduced from datasets: - House prices and rates of change in house prices - Household migration and search patterns - Contextual data : e.g. travel to work boundaries; retail and school catchment areas

Unaddressed SHMA shortfalls Likely to be passive summaries of area data Limited assessment of household aspirations Small regard for business drivers : viability / supply Overly ‘fluid’ approach to boundary changes Limited engagement with local communities

Suggestions to revise SHMA approach Assessments must look at all aspirations and drivers Combine household, supply, land, viability & community inputs into one holistic tool Promote neighbourhoods as fundamental to market compositions Connect HMA context with specific support for local economic policies Detail the basis and scope for legitimate local ‘market intervention’ Bob’s comments: Make a more specific list of what should be in future assessments: - Land ownership, suppliers sub-sections, costs and prices, etc. - Simple description of the new stock required - relevance of parts to an holistic whole

Concluding remarks Debate continues about strong or weak markets ‘Failing market’ subsumed within UK ‘delivery crisis’ Need remains to have tools to dissect localities Frameworks must focus on sensible interventions SHMAs currently focused on ‘assessment’ and not enough on ‘strategy’ Bob’s comments: Re-orientate concluding remarks on future SHMAs into making them much more dynamic, and effective as market analysis & influence

References ESRC project ES/I038632/1 : “Tensions and Future Prospects for Sustainable Housing Growth” DETR (2006) : Planning Policy Statement 3 : Housing [PPS3] DCLG (2007) : Strategic Housing Market Assessments – Practice Guidance, Version 2 DCLG (2010) : Housing Market Areas and Regional Spatial Geographies DCLG (2012) : National Planning Policy Framework DCLG (2013) : Assessment of housing and economic development needs, August – October DCLG (2013) : Land Assessment Guidance, August – October 2013http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk TSO (2011) : Localism Act 2011, E Ferrari, D L Laughlin & C Watkins (2011) : Planning and the Housing Market : reflections on strategic housing market assessment in England, Town Planning Review, 82(4), 2011, p S Hinks & M Baker (2013) : Housing Market Areas and the strategic planning of housing In England, Town Planning Review, 84(1), 2013, p127 – 152 KPMG / Shelter (2013) : Homes for the next generation : Lessons from the West Midlands, North Northamptonshire Joint Planning Unit (2012) : SHMA Update, August 2012