GV-506: week 6 Conditions for Interstate Wars: War as a costly choice.

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Presentation transcript:

GV-506: week 6 Conditions for Interstate Wars: War as a costly choice

Conflict under the prism of social psychology ► Conflict as a process driven by collective needs and fears ► Conflict as a complicated, multifaceted process ► Conflict as an interactive and escalatory dynamic

Psychological factors that lead to conflict ► Collective moods (e.g. ethnic mobilization) ► Formation of group loyalties ► Predisposition towards negotiation and bargaining ► Formation of mirror images

Systemic Level ► Power distribution  Unipolar, bipolar, or multipolar  Information structure of the international system  Balance or bandwagon ► Competition over resources (territory)  Hence, contiguity as a factor ► Arms races ► Migration, population movement ► Impact of environmental constraints:  Does environmental destruction lead to conflict?  Domestic or international ► Globalization  Increasing or mitigating conflict? ► Technological changes:  Offensive vs. Defensive weapons

Individual Level: decision making process ► Security dilemma ► Prisoner’s dilemma and fear due to incomplete information ► Risk values of leaders ► Psychological and cognitive factors ► Expected utility: war as a cost-benefit analysis to promote national interests

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