Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The European flooding of summer 2002 and its global connections Mike Blackburn, Brian Hoskins, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo Centre for Global Atmospheric.

Advertisements

UK-India workshop on downscaling and linking to applications, UEA, January 2009 Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the.

The European flooding of summer 2002 and its global connections Mike Blackburn, Brian Hoskins, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo Centre for Global Atmospheric.

Contrasting Precipitation Responses to Warming: Models and Satellite Data Richard P. Allan 1 and Brian J. Soden 2 1 Environmental Systems Science Centre,

The Indian Summer Monsoon and Climate Change Andrew Turner with Pete Inness & Julia Slingo RMetS meeting, Wednesday 20 June 2007.

1 NCAS SMA presentation 14/15 September 2004 The August 2002 European floods: atmospheric teleconnections and mechanisms Mike Blackburn (1), Brian Hoskins.

The effect of doubled CO 2 on intraseasonal behaviour of the Asian Summer Monsoon Andrew Turner & Julia Slingo RMetS Conference 2007: 3-6 September.

The effect of doubled CO 2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system Andrew Turner, P.M. Inness & J.M. Slingo IUGG meeting: JMS011 Monsoon.

NCAS-Climate: Carries out research into climate change and variability, motivated by the need to understand how the climate system will evolve over the.

The Role of the Basic State in Determining the Predictability of Tropical Rainfall Andrew Turner, Pete Inness and Julia Slingo. Talk Outline Motivation.

The effect of climate change and systematic model bias on the monsoon-ENSO system: the TBO and changing ENSO regimes Andrew Turner

Impacts of systematic model biases on intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon and the intraseasonal-interannual relationship A. G. Turner.

The effect of doubled CO 2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon- ENSO system Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo Walker Institute / NCAS-Climate.

The effect of doubled CO 2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon- ENSO system: the mean response and interannual variability Andrew Turner, Pete.

NCAS Conference December 2007, Park Inn Hotel, York The Indian monsoon and climate change Andrew Turner, Julia Slingo.

The monsoon-ENSO teleconnection and different ENSO regimes in a flux corrected future climate Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo IPSL/CGAM workshop.

An event-based approach to understanding decadal variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Lesley Allison, Ed Hawkins & Tim Woollings.

Regional climate change over southern South America: evolution of mean climate and extreme events Silvina A. Solman CIMA (CONICET-UBA) Buenos Aires ARGENTINA.

Uganda’s climate: change and variability Prof Chris Reason, UCT & Lead Author, WG1 AR5 Regional circulation and climate Climate variability Long-term projections.

Uncertainty in weather and climate prediction by Julia Slingo, and Tim Palmer Philosophical Transactions A Volume 369(1956): December 13, 2011.

Jiangfeng Wei Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Maryland, USA.

Heartland Conference on Climate Change Chicago May Indian Monsoon Variability & Global Warming Madhav Khandekar CANADA Expert Reviewer IPCC.

The causes of extreme rainfall in East Africa: insights from observed data and GCMs Emily Black, Julia Slingo and Ken Sperber.

The use of CHALLENGE data in climate change detection claims Albert Klein Tank, KNMI Source: CRU/MetOffice, 2004.

Outline Further Reading: Detailed Notes Posted on Class Web Sites Natural Environments: The Atmosphere GG 101 – Spring 2005 Boston University Myneni L31:

Using observations to reduce uncertainties in climate model predictions Maryland Climate Change Workshop Prof. Daniel Kirk-Davidoff.

Natural Climate Variability: Floods in Veracruz, Mexico in 2010: Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas 1 University of Maryland ----o---- WCRP Open Science Conference:

May 2007 vegetation Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Kevin E Trenberth NCAR Weather and climate in the 21 st Century: What do we know? What don’t we know?

Climate and Food Security Thank you to the Yaqui Valley and Indonesian Food Security Teams at Stanford 1.Seasonal Climate Forecasts 2.Natural cycles of.

Extreme Events and Climate Variability. Issues: Scientists are telling us that global warming means more extreme weather. Every year we seem to experience.

Changes in the incidence of climate extremes and their links to climate change Neville Nicholls Monash University.

Intensification of Summer Rainfall Variability in the Southeastern United States in Recent Decades Hui Wang 1,2, Wenhong Li 1, and Rong Fu 1,3 1 Georgia.

High Resolution Climate Modelling in NERC (and the Met Office) Len Shaffrey, University of Reading Thanks to: Pier Luigi Vidale, Jane Strachan, Dave Stevens,

Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections Extremes in a changing climate, KNMI, The Netherlands,

Projections of Future Climate from the GCMs Peter J. Sousounis Geography Department Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI.

TRENDS IN U.S. EXTREME SNOWFALL SEASONS SINCE 1900 Kenneth E. Kunkel NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC David R. Easterling National.

Inter-annual to decadal climate prediction Mojib Latif, Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University.

ASSESSMENT OF ALBEDO CHANGES AND THEIR DRIVING FACTORS OVER THE QINGHAI-TIBETAN PLATEAU B. Zhang, L. Lei, Hao Zhang, L. Zhang and Z. Zen WE4.T Geology.

Climate trends, regional and national climate change projections Gillian Cambers, SPC, GCCA: PSIS Project Manager.

The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo.

Model Intercomparison Discussion Fred Kucharski (Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy) and Adam Scaife (MetOffice, Exeter, UK) as discussion leader.

Climate Change and Extreme Weather: IPCC Findings by: Yap Kok Seng Malaysian Meteorological Department Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation National.

Andrew Turner UKCDS Bangladesh Delegation Visit Wednesday 3 March 2010 Key modes of climate variability over South Asia and uncertainties in future climate.

Motivation Quantify the impact of interannual SST variability on the mean and the spread of Probability Density Function (PDF) of seasonal atmospheric.

How Extreme South West Rainfall Has Changed It is likely that climate change will be felt most through changes in extreme events.

Australian Climate: The Past 50 Years of Change Mr Bruce Stewart Assistant Director (Climate and Oceans)

Northwest European High Summer Climate Variability, the West African Monsoon and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation Jim Hurrell, NCAR, & Chris Folland,

Assessing the Influence of Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change on Snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the.

Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in Asia.

Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Influences on Failed Consecutive Rainy Seasons over Eastern Africa** Andy Hoell 1 and Chris Funk 1,2 Contact:

Ahira Sánchez-Lugo October 20, 2015 NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

Winter Outlook for the Pacific Northwest: Winter 06/07 14 November 2006 Kirby Cook. NOAA/National Weather Service Acknowledgement: Climate Prediction Center.

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

The role of Atlantic ocean on the decadal- multidecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon Observational and paleoclimate evidences Observational and.

Evapotranspiration and Drought Changes: Some Key Issues Aiguo Dai Dept. of Atmospheric & Environ. Sci., SUNY, Albany, NY, USA AGU Fall Meeting, Session.

Advanced Science and Technology Letters Vol.31 (MulGraB 2013), pp Effect of Urbanization on Climate.

Precipitation extremes during Indian summer monsoon Jayashree Revadekar Centre for Climate Change Research Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology PUNE,

The Indian Monsoon and Climate Change

Global Warming Michael E. Mann, Department of Environmental Sciences

Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo

Sensitivity of precipitation extremes to ENSO variability

Overview of East Asian Summer Monsoon etc

Polar Climate Change in CCSM3: Climatology and trend

Current global and regional changes in atmospheric water vapour

Global Climate Change.

JSPS 5th University Allied Workshop on Climate and Environmental Studies for Global Sustainability Decadal change in the relationship between East Asian-western.

Sub Topic – Indian Monsoon and Climate Change

Changes in surface climate of the tropical Pacific

Korea Ocean Research & Development Institute, Ansan, Republic of Korea

Lianyi Zhang, Yan Du (SCSIO) Wenju Cai (QNLM/CSIRO)

Presentation transcript:

Climate change and decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall: a modelling study Yonghui Lei, Brian Hoskins, Julia Slingo and Andy Turner

Observed decadal variability in the period

Decadal variability in the period using CRU dataset

Outline  Can HadCM3 simulate the observed decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall without additional forcing? Changes in the mean state Changes in extreme Changes in variability  How may Chinese summer rainfall respond to doubled CO2 according to HadCM3?

Internal decadal variability in the 1000-year control run of HadCM3

Observation-like decadal variability identified in the 1000-year control run

Observation-like decadal variability in the 51-year period (the model year 590±25)

Regressions of surface temperature on decadal rainfall time series in the 51-year period Regression on PC1Regression on PC2

 Can HadCM3 simulate the observed decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall without additional forcing? Yes! In general, internal decadal variability of Chinese summer rainfall is associated with decadal variability in the tropics. A particular 51-year period has remarkable similarity with observations in the recent 50 years for both Chinese summer rainfall and other large-scale variables. Summary I

Changes in the climate of Chinese summer rainfall in the 2xCO2 run (I) 2xCO2 - control percentage AmountIntensityFrequency

Changes in the climate of Chinese summer rainfall in the 2xCO2 run (II)

Changes in the climate of Chinese summer rainfall in the 2xCO2 run (III)

Changes in extreme events of Chinese summer rainfall in the 2xCO2 run Percentile (%) mm/day

The dominant Chinese rainfall patterns in the control and 2xCO2 runs (I) 1xCO2 2xCO2

The dominant Chinese rainfall patterns in the control and 2xCO2 runs (II) 1xCO22xCO2 1xCO22xCO2

The dominant Chinese rainfall patterns in the control and 2xCO2 runs (III)

Uncertainty of decadal variability in the control and 2xCO2 runs (I)

Uncertainty of decadal variability in the control and 2xCO2 runs (II)

 How may Chinese summer rainfall respond to doubled CO2 according to HadCM3? Mean: Chinese summer rainfall increases, except the Yangtze River valley; Intensity increases everywhere; Decreases in the frequency over the east and increases over the northwest. Summary II

 How may Chinese summer rainfall respond to doubled CO2 according to HadCM3? Summary II Increases in extreme events, consistent with the Clausius- Clapeyron relationship Variability: Increases in interannual variability are very likely with global warming, which may be associated with the strengthened El Nino events. Changes in decadal variability are unclear.