Jabin T Jacob SPIRIT, Sciences Po, Bordeaux 9 April 2010

China and its Provinces unitary, single-party system Beijing vs. provinces hierarchy of provinces location, size leaders in Politb, PLA post-1978 world trade, FDI education provincial diaspora influence exercised budgets tenure of leaders openness to the outside post-1978 preferential policies location of major events

India and its Provinces federal, single-party post-1989 – federal, multi-party, reforms and opening up of economy hierarchy of provinces members in Parliament GDP post-1989 world trade, FDI education, infrastructure provincial diaspora influence exercised/constrained members in Parliament location / national security post-1989 coalition governments

Indian Provinces and Foreign Policy Legally, provinces have no right Executive negotiates, signs and ratifies treaties Parliament only legislates to implement ratified international agreements In practice, provinces affect foreign policy: who governments, parties, interest groups why events in province interest in events across borders interest in treaties results trade-offs domestically

2 Phases centrist Indian National Congress in power little or no provincial involvement or input visible in foreign policy post-1989 provincial parties grow in power coalition governments at the centre liberalization and growth of the Indian economy higher degree of provincial input and interest in foreign policy visible results in trade-offs domestically results in complication of bilateral relations with other countries

India and its Neighbourhood

Provincial India and its Neighbourhood

original reasons for the division of the Indian subcontinent religion, language 60-odd years of international borders language and slang, customs, trade routes change family links weaken strong centripetal / “provinpetal” forces historical memory remains strong ethnic linkages family links survive, marriage across borders development of technology and communication supports irredentism provincial governments in India and China are becoming stronger want to take advantage of ethnic and historical linkages economic reasons – competition with other provinces

Kashmir – Pakistan, China India x Pak India x China New Delhi x Kashmir post-1989 New Delhi x Kashmir India x Pak India x China

NE India – China, Bangladesh, SE Asia India x China India x NE provincial interest groups post-1989 New Delhi + NE provincial governments New Delhi x NE provincial interest groups India x/+ China India x/+ Bangladesh India +/x Myanmar India + Southeast Asia

Tamil Nadu – Sri Lanka, Malaysia India +/x SL Tamil Nadu x SL New Delhi x Tamil Nadu post-1991, 2007 Tamil Nadu x/+ SL India + SL New Delhi x/+ Tamil Nadu Tamil Nadu +/x Malaysia India + Malaysia

Gujarat – Africa India + Africa Gujarat +/? Africa post-1989, 2008 India + Kenya New Delhi x Gujarat Gujarat ? Africa

Kerala – ASEAN India +/- ASEAN Kerala +/? ASEAN post-1989, 2009 India + ASEAN New Delhi +/x Kerala Kerala ?/x ASEAN

Implications centre-province relations in India increasing political power of provinces at the centre greater activism and interest or capacity for intervention in foreign policy matters will the Indian Parliament have a greater say in India’s international affairs? trade-offs by centre to provinces over foreign policy issues Kerala and ASEAN FTA Northeast India and Look East Policy? inter-provincial competition for trade and FDI

Implications impact on Indian foreign policy affects India’s relations with other countries ethnic issues, diaspora linkages Tamil Nadu – Sri Lanka, Malaysia Punjab –Pakistan, Canada, US, France Gujarat – Kenya affects India’s ability to negotiate Indo-US civilian nuclear deal, 2008 – provincial parties India-ASEAN FTA, Kerala for the rest of the world foreign governments need to pay attention to local/provincial conditions and politics foreign governments can influence provinces inter-provincial competition for trade and FDI

Two Punjabs

West Bengal and Bangladesh

An Older India