0 Powering Scotland Conference The Role of Oil and Gas 10 th February 2009 Edinburgh David Odling, Oil & Gas UK

1 IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2008 Fossil fuels continue to dominate energy supplies (~80%) looking ahead to 2030 Oil still largest single component, but largest growth is in coal consumption China + India account for just over 50% of growth in demand Electricity consumption grows faster than any other end use of energy

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5 Nearer to Home ….. 20% of EU’s energy supplies to come from renewable sources by 2020, but in the United Kingdom – 15% 50% of Scotland’s electricity from renewable sources by 2020 (ref Scottish Gov’t) All very CHALLENGING and EXPENSIVE: can it be done?? – highly doubtful and there’s too much attention on electricity And the great, unmentionable question: who is going to pay? – Jo Public!

6 Actual + Projected UKCS Expenditure (£ billion, 2008 money) “E&A” = Exploration and Appraisal Drilling

7 UKCS: the Better Future – up to 25 billion barrels of oil equivalent recoverable

8 Some Conclusions The “Better Future” largely lies off Scotland The industry currently supports ~500,000 jobs in UK, 45% of which are in Scotland Exports of oil & gas goods and services: c.£5 billion/year (world leaders in subsea technology) Need for secure energy = need to exploit indigenous resources fully (policy in UK and EU) Renewable sources: cost, intermittence and long development times for new technologies Meanwhile, it’s oil & gas, plus coal with CCS and (?) nuclear, for bulk energy

9 A Final Thought … Are we all trying to go too far, too fast at, potentially, immense cost and significant risk of insecurity of supply? – when a more measured approach of adapt and change is probably more realisable and affordable. Thank you! Aberdeen ( ) and London ( )