M. Schaap and many others An overview of European initiatives relevant for FAIRMODE

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE2 Goal: To provide an overview of relevant ongoing initiatives in Europe relevant to FAIRMODE Focus on: Objectives Modelling activities

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE MACC MEGAPOLI, CityZen COST 728 & 732 COST ES0602 (Chemical Weather) PASODOBLE PROMOTE-2 GEMS Time scales of some relevant projects and activities EURODELTA AQMEII

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE4 MACC - Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate implementing the core monitoring and forecasting services

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE5 The underlying computational approach Input data Weather, constituents, emissions, land and ocean conditions Model

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE6 Data assimilation Input data Model The underlying computational approach

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE7 Forecast Model A Model G Model B Model C Model D Model E Data assimilation Input data Model The underlying computational approach

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE8 Overall service structure (from MACC viewpoint) Feedback

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE9 PASODOBLE - Goals Develop and demonstrate user-driven downstream information services for the regional and local air quality sector by combining space-based data, in-situ data and models in 4 service lines: Health community support for people at risk, hospitals, pharmacies and doctors Public forecasting and assessment support for agencies, tourist industries and sport event organizers Compliance monitoring support on particulate matter for regional environmental agencies Local forecast model evaluation support for local authorities and city bodies

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE10 Interface to Core and Inputs Interface to Users Quality Management Marketing and Business Planning GMES Core ServicesOther Inputs Users and Market User Needs PASODOBLE - Concept User feedback cycle Marketing cycle Health Community Support Public Forecasting Support Compliance Monitoring Sup. Local Model Evaluation Sup. Air Quality Downstream Service Cluster 1 2

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE11 PASODOBLE users* Map of Europe showing the regions and cities covered by PASODOBLE Downstream Services for Committed Users *at time of proposal preperation

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE12  a forum for benchmarking approaches and practices in data exchange and multi- model capabilities for chemical weather forecasting  Provide an easy interface to a wide variety of web-based air quality forecasting systems in Europe  By selecting a point on the map, he or she will automatically receive  a list of the AQ modelling systems  the domain, the research group of each model  a description of the service etc. COST 0602 A screenshot of the portal for web-based air quality forecasting systems in Europe. eu/Domains Under construction!

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE13 Figure: Illustration of some of the services available on the front page of the portal. chemicalweather.eu/Domains Please add your own forecasting service ! An overview paper on current chemical weather forecast systems is almost finished

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE14 Connections between Megacities, Air Quality and Climate Some links shown have already been considered by previous studies and are reasonably well- understood. However, a complete quantitative picture of these interactions is clearly missing. Understanding and quantifying these missing links will be the focus of MEGAPOLI.

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE15 The CityZen project ( ) Effect of Megacities on different spatial scales model studies and analyses of long-term observations development of emission scenarios Climate-chemistry coupling in and around Megacities Coordinated by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, involving 16 partners from 11 countries and 3 continents

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE16 Objectives of Cityzen & Megapoli Quantify and understand current air pollution in and around selected megacities Development of tools to estimate interactions between different spatial scales Estimate how megacities influence air quality and climate, locally and globally Estimate how megacities are responding to climate change Estimate the impact of future emission change, including mitigation options Provide technical underpinning of policy work

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE17 European scale top-down Urban scale bottom up Road TransportTotal Local Megacity Emission inventories for Paris (Airparif), London, Rhine-Ruhr, and Po Valley as well as global ( EGDAR team, JRC) Domain of selected 1 st level Megacities London Rhine-Ruhr Paris Po Valley Emissions NRW – Rhine-Ruhr

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE18 Paris Rhine-Ruhr Po Valley London Moscow Istanbul St-Petersburg

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE19 Paris Nord Rhein Westphalia Po Valley London Istanbul Athens

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE20 Transport Integrated Assessment Cycle Emission models: -road traffic; -shipping; -aviation; Dispersion models -regional; - point; - line; - street canyon; Exposure model ESCAPE Cohort studies EU transport policy Cities policy EU measures Cities measures Transphorm

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE21 EURODELTA To benchmark the EMEP model Do regional air quality models produce a consistent response to emission changes ? What is the range of modelled responses to emission changes ? What are confidence limits for the modelling used in policy ? Is a sectoral approach beneficial within IAM?

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE22 The JRC EURODELTA tool

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE23 Different models generally agree in their responses to emission reductions – absolute variability up to 50% All models agree better in a relative sense than in an absolute sense: Germany, after 2020 SO4 NO3 NH4

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE24 COST 728 to develop advanced conceptual and computational frameworks to enhance significantly European capabilities in mesoscale meteorological modelling for air pollution and dispersion applications Case study Stern et al. (2008) Ongoing activities include an investigation to the differences in meteorological input on the model results by using independent meteorological tower observations

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE25

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE26 COST 732 Quality Assurance and Improvement of Microscale Meteorological Models Problem statement:  The main objective of the Action was to improve and assure the quality of micro-scale meteorological models that are applied for predicting flow and transport processes in urban or industrial environments.

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE27 Harmonised European views in the field of model evaluation were established. Background and Justification Document to Support the Model Evaluation Guidance and Protocol Model Evaluation Guidance and Protocol Document Best Practice Guideline for the CFD simulation of Flows in the Urban Environment Model Evaluation Case Studies: Approach and Results COST 732 Quality Assurance and Improvement of Microscale Meteorological Models

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE28 Strengths:  Unique opportunity to combine knowledge available in the COST Countries  Action was sufficiently focused  Subject of the Action was timely  Discussions within the group were controversial but fair  The group was able to reach consensus Weaknesses:  National delegates not always qualified/motivated/leading the field  Additional support from EU / ESF had been requested but was refused.  The workload for the active participants was finally overwhelming COST 732 Strengths and weaknesses

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE29 Air Quality Model International Initiative (AQMEII) Necessity was recognized to bridge between North American and European regional scale model evaluation communities & practices 2008 first workshop organized at TNO and the constitution of the Steering Committee May 2009: JRC-IES organizes the Stresa workshop. In depth analysis of the four evaluation streams defined by AQMEII and starting the definition of the a the first activity involving the two communities Activity supported by JRC-IES, US-EPA, Environment Canada, DG-RTD and DG-ENV

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE30 Dynamic Evaluation Can the model capture changes related to meteorological events or variations? Can the model capture changes related to emission reductions? Model-predicted concentration and deposition Model Inputs: meteorology and emissions Chemical transformation: gas, aerosol, clouds Transport: advection and diffusion Removal: dry and wet deposition Diagnostic Evaluation Are model errors or biases caused by model inputs or by modeled processes? Can we identify the specific modeled process(es) responsible? Are we getting the right answers? Probabilistic Evaluation What is our confidence in the model-predicted values? How do observed concentrations compare within an uncertainty range of model predictions? Operational Evaluation How do the model predicted concentrations compare to observed concentration data? What are the overall temporal or spatial prediction errors or biases? Are we getting the right answers for the right (or wrong) reasons? Can we capture the observed changes in air quality? What is our confidence in the model predictions? Can we identify needed improvements for modeled processes or inputs? 4 model evaluation types

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE31 First phase (2010) : focus operational, diagnostic and probabilistic evaluation Time Line for cases for the year 2006 Invitation to participation including overall scope of the activity and preliminary information on time windows in focus and motivation July 2009 X Distribution of refined specification and commitment by groups to take part to the activity November 2009 X Official start of the exercise Distribution of the information and specification on input data, requested output, etc End January, 2010 Data submission NA case: End of May EU case: End of June Discussion on the results and future steps at AQMEII workshop: Probably within ITM 2010, Turin End-September, 2010 Participation is opened: URL:

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE32 Overview of AQD applications & scale in on-going projects Applications for the AQD Local-Hot spot (dx ~ m) Urban/Agglom (dx ~ 1- 5 km) Regional (dx ~ 10 – 50 km) Compliance / Assessment Data Assimilation Fusion Mitigation & Planning Emission scenarios Source Apportionment Public information AQ near real time forecast EURODELTA MACC AQMEII PASODOBLE MEGAPOLI MACC MEGAPOLI CITYZEN MEGAPOLI EURODELTA CITYZEN EC4MACS PASODOBLE COST 602 Chemical Weather TRANSPHORM COST 602 TRANSPHORM

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE33 EC4MACS Types of Evaluation Emissions Dynamic -Response to Δ Meteo Operational Routine statistics by one-to-one pairing Probabilistic “Ensembles” Diagnostic “process impact – why?” Regional (dx ~ 10 – 50 km) Urban/Agglom (dx ~ 1- 5 km) Local-Hot spot (dx ~ m) Type of Evaluation MEGAPOLI EURODELTA MACC AQMEII PASODOBLE MEGAPOLI MACC MEGAPOLI CITYZEN EURODELTA CITYZEN COST Chemical Weather TRANSPHORM CITYZEN EURODELTA AQMEII CITYZEN COST 728 AQMEII COST 602

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE34 Conclusions There is a large experience on the regional scale, followed by the hotspot scale. Model evaluation exercises and comparisons on the city scale have attracted less attention A large experience is present on model evaluation for Compliance / Assessment Source Apportionment (Natural components) Public information, i.e. forecasting Limited experience is present on model evaluation for Mitigation & Planning Many initiatives were not “open” and not continuous, FAIRMODE should be FAIRMODE can draw from a large pool of expertise

Nov. 19, 2009FAIRMODE35 Other relevant projects FP6-Air4EU: Review of best practices on all scales Monitoring Modelling Data assimilation CityDelta EC4MACS FP6-GEOMON FP7-ENERGEO And probably many more …