Tropical Cyclone Basins W C E P S

Area of Responsibility CPHC NHC JTWC NHC JTWC JTWC JTWC = TC warning center

FNMOC AJTWC JTWC CPHC TPC/NHC National Hurricane Center NOAA NESDIS SAB FNMOC AJTWC RKSJ KGWC RODN JTWC CPHC PGUA TPC/NHC National Hurricane Center DGAR

Purpose of TC Satellite Reconnaissance To assist the Typhoon Duty Officer or Hurricane Specialist in determining the position and estimated intensity of the tropical cyclone at a point in time

Recon Imagery Requirements Imagery used in support of Center warnings must: Have sufficient resolution to discern the important meteorological features </= 1.5km visible </= 5 km infrared </= 15 km microwave Be precisely geo-navigated (each pixel tied to a specific lat/lon point relative to the earth’s surface) to provide accurate position information

Use in the warning process, continued Feeds in to Objective best track Synthetic vortex (bogus) insertion Numerical model guidance (persistence) Current warning position and intensity

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix:

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: So - where’s the aircraft? RADAR? SFC OBS?

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Aircraft recon - discontinued in WestPac 1987

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: WSR-88D RADAR - 240nm from GUAM and Kadena only

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: WSR-88D Surface Obs - very limited in WestPac AOR.

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: So - all that’s left - all too often - is two opinions about the location of the LLCC

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Which two opinions? JTWC and AFWA!

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: If you pick “A”, Guam is threatened in 24 hrs... But not if you pick “B”

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Gale winds here in green

Storm Track/Forecast So the choice matters! The importance of an accurate fix: This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! So the choice matters!

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! The overall confidence in a single fix is never high - unless it’s an EYE.

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: This could be the difference between getting aircraft & ships sortied (evacuated) on-time or too late! If we selected a position in-between the two subjective position estimates….

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….then we have a higher probability of being correct…….

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: ….or at least not too too far off…....

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: Most Likely ….when compared to the other two forecasts.

Storm Track/Forecast The importance of an accurate fix: EXTREME Most Likely EXTREME ….when compared to the other two forecasts.