Australia’s next Defence White Paper An ASPI Update Peter Abigail

A maritime geo-strategic setting ADF Primary Operational Environment

Australia’s ‘abiding strategic interests’ a secure Australiaa secure Australia a secure immediate neighbourhooda secure immediate neighbourhood strategic stability in Asia-Pacificstrategic stability in Asia-Pacific a stable, rules-based global security ordera stable, rules-based global security order

Key strategic aspirationKey strategic aspiration Key strategic assumptionKey strategic assumption Key strategic enablerKey strategic enabler The strategic environment challenges Australia’s:

Ensuring Australia’s strategic weight and role in the regionEnsuring Australia’s strategic weight and role in the region Managing shifts in US strategic primacy in the regionManaging shifts in US strategic primacy in the region Sustaining adequate Defence fundingSustaining adequate Defence funding Implicit strategic objectives

China’s ‘charm offensive’ stumbledChina’s ‘charm offensive’ stumbled US ‘awakening’: a recalibration of strategy and ‘re-invigoration’ of regional relationshipsUS ‘awakening’: a recalibration of strategy and ‘re-invigoration’ of regional relationships Australia has confirmed its strategic ‘choice’Australia has confirmed its strategic ‘choice’ The Indian Ocean is getting more attentionThe Indian Ocean is getting more attention Indonesia is starting to contemplate its future roleIndonesia is starting to contemplate its future role Arab ‘Spring’: too early to tellArab ‘Spring’: too early to tell Global Economic Crisis (Mk 2)?Global Economic Crisis (Mk 2)? Force 2030 will be late, anywayForce 2030 will be late, anyway What has changed since 2009?

Does Australia seek security from Asia, security with Asia, or some selective combination?Does Australia seek security from Asia, security with Asia, or some selective combination? What are the strategic implications of an extended global economic contraction?What are the strategic implications of an extended global economic contraction? What more can we do to maintain strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 15 years?What more can we do to maintain strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region over the next 15 years? How can we best reassure the United States?How can we best reassure the United States? How should our Army be optimised?How should our Army be optimised? Should Australia have a national capability to design, build, integrate and sustain bespoke submarines?Should Australia have a national capability to design, build, integrate and sustain bespoke submarines? Does the ADF have the capacity to be parent services of bespoke advanced systems and capabilities?Does the ADF have the capacity to be parent services of bespoke advanced systems and capabilities? What ADF capability, other than for current operations, is urgent?What ADF capability, other than for current operations, is urgent? Eight questions leading to the next Defence White Paper