Demographic Transition Model Chapter 2, Key Issue 3

Stage 1: Low Growth At about 8000 B.C., the agricultural revolution occurred when humans first domesticated plants and animals and stopped being hunter- gatherers Food was unpredictable b/c of weather, war and disease, so the world remained at Stage 1 until 1750

Stage 2: High Growth 1750-world’s population suddenly began to grow 10 x faster than in the past Several countries moved to Stage 2 after 1750 b/c of Industrial Revolution (steam engine, mass production, etc.) Made countries healthier—improved sanitation and food and water supplies protected against contamination

Stage 2 (cont.) Europe and N. American entered Stage 2 around 1800 because of Industrial Revolution Africa, Asia and Latin American entered in 1950s due to medical revolution

Stage 3: Moderate Growth Europe and N. America entered Stage 3 in early 1900s Asia and Latin America moved to Stage 3 in the last few years Most of Africa still in Stage 2 today CBR declines b/c of social customs (fewer children) Stage 3 countries more likely to live in cities

Stage 4: Low Growth TFR of approx. 2.1 produces ZPG, but immigration into the country allows a lower TFR to achieve ZPG Most European countries now Stage 4 The U.S. TFR has hovered around ZPG since 2000 In Stage 4, women work outside of the home more and have smaller families

Russia’s negative NIR 50 years of communist rule Inadequate pollution control Strong family-planning programs Pessimism about having children in an uncertain world

The future A Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model? – Higher death rates than birth rates – Irreversible population decline