1 Operational Rate Understanding the BAM

2 Overview  Sampling  Formula  Weighting  Excluded Overpayments  Time Period

3 Sampling  BAM data gathered weekly  Sampling program  Sample size  Results are estimates

4 The Formula Nh=Total number of UI payments in the population for batch h. vih=Dollars overpaid for the ith case in batch h. xih=Original amount paid/offset for the ith case in batch h. mh=Number of completed sample cases for batch h. H=Number of batches in the range.

5 The Formula…Simplified Total Amount Overpaid ÷ Total Amount Paid = Rate Overpaid

6 Extra Factors  Weighted  Computed Weekly  Summed Yearly

7 Weighting  Based on sample cases  How much weight does each case carry?  Number of cases each week compared to the number of payments in the universe Avg score for men = 5 Avg score for women = 10 Is the average score 7.5? What if there are 100 men in the population and only 50 women? 5* *50 / 150 = 6.666

8 Exclusions  Non-Recoverable Overpayments  Technically Proper Overpayments  Base Period Wage Errors  Work Search  ES Registration  Other Causes  Why? RecoverableRecoverable Reasonably detectableReasonably detectable

9 Time Period  Based on a sample  Need 12 months to get full picture  BAM is current  BAM is a sample, therefore an estimate  Operational Rate Overpayment rate * Dollars paid in the populationOverpayment rate * Dollars paid in the population estimated amount of overpayments in the populationestimated amount of overpayments in the population

10 BPC  Ties to BPC (Overpayment/Fraud Unit)(Overpayment/Fraud Unit)  BPC takes time 6 months to discover (wage detail), investigate and write6 months to discover (wage detail), investigate and write

11 Goals and Standards  GPRA target is to establish 52.8% of the overpayments that BAM estimates is out there (FY 2010)  Lower limit 50% CAP needed if below 50%CAP needed if below 50%  Upper Limit 95% BAM program accuracy suspectBAM program accuracy suspect BPC reporting accuracy suspectBPC reporting accuracy suspect CAP needed if over 95%CAP needed if over 95%  UIPL regarding target:

12 Time lines  BAM Operational rate dates Jan. 1, Year1 through Dec. 31, Year1Jan. 1, Year1 through Dec. 31, Year1  BPC Dates Jul 1, Year1 through Jun 30, Year2Jul 1, Year1 through Jun 30, Year2  WEB site to view your rate yearly (GPRA):  WEB site to view your 3 year rate (Core Measure)

13 Understanding the Website  Column 1 = yearly total of cm4  Column 2 = Computed Operational Rate  Column 3 = Column 1* Column 2 $540,341,335 *.0347 = $18,749,844$540,341,335 *.0347 = $18,749,844 Not a perfect match due to roundingNot a perfect match due to rounding  Column 4 = yearly total of 227 OP data  Column 5 = Column 4 / Column 3 $10,994,408 / $18,759,207 =.58608$10,994,408 / $18,759,207 = Col 5

14 Review  BAM uses a sample  Overpayments/Amount paid  Weighted to accurately represent the population  Need a complete year of data  Rate includes only overpayments that are recoverable and reasonably detectable  Compare rate to a full year, 6 months later for BPC activity