Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 1 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems An Observation and Analysis System to Support Greenhouse Gas Management.

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Presentation transcript:

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 1 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems An Observation and Analysis System to Support Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies 17 November 2009 James Butler NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 2 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Outline Global Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Today An Emerging Need – Emission Reduction Verifying the Outcome of Greenhouse Gas Management Strategies Observing and Modeling Challenges

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 3 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Global Greenhouse Gas Monitoring Structure Tools we have  WMO GAW framework  SAG, GAWSIS, GAWTEC  Experts’ Meetings  WDC, CCL, WCC for GHGs  152 sites report GHG data to WDC Products supported  WDC products & national network products (e.g., NOAA, CSIRO, EU)  WMO reports and pubs  GHG bulletin  CarbonTracker, CarbonTracker- Asia, CarbonTracker-EU, Other reanalyses Customers  Scientists oIPCC oNational Assessments  Educators  General public (e.g., NGOs, press, etc.)

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 4 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Globalview, (annual) Data sets & Visual displays (variable) IADV (daily) AGGI (annual) CarbonTracker (annual) Global trends (monthly) Stewardship DATA Products Services Creativity, Analysis

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 5 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems An Emerging Global Challenge Society is advancing efforts to manage and reduce emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases Mitigation efforts will vary by nation, region, & emission sector (energy, industry, etc.), and will be diverse in their approach Large-scale emission reduction approaches (e.g., international, national, state) require independent, scientific verification of the outcome of policies implemented  Stratospheric Ozone  Acid Rain  Air Quality The complexity & variability of the carbon cycle, the scale of problem, the number and types of players, and the number of GHGs make this a significant challenge for GHG emission reduction

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 6 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Develop System Establish Baselines Critical Verif ication Period Fine Grid, Robust Verification Enhance System Maintain System Percent of 2010 Emissions Time How will Society Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emmissions?? We don’t know... but..

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 7 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Verification: Providing Objective, Science-based Information to Support Policy & Implementation International Agreements  Reliable, trusted information will help guide policy decisions at the highest levels  Will inform decisions regarding needs for adjustments or amendments to existing agreements  Will provide the information necessary to ensure a globally successful effort National Laws  National policies to balance GHG emission reduction efforts or offsets will require periodic verification of their outcome  GHG information specific to regions and economic sectors can ensure continuance or expansion of strategies that are working and aid in adjusting those that are not Inventory Validation  Reliable GHG information will help inform inventory reporting and measurements  Can help improve national inventories  Can help inform the design and evaluation of mitigation strategies GHG trading markets  With or without trading, carbon and other GHGs will acquire considerable value  Independent outcome verification would help investors be secure in their investments  Would ensure that the goal of GHG trading would stay on target

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 8 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Carbon Crucible – The Future Demands New and Expanded Approaches Increased Observations Improved Transport Models Enhanced Reanalysis

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 9 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Atmospheric Measurements “Land” exchange Oceanic Measurements Surface Ocean Biosphere Inventories & Fluxes Emission Inventories Deep Ocean Surface Satellite Aircraft Satellite Mapping Integration and Product Development (Reanalysis)

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 10 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Surface-based & In-situ Networks CarboEurope WMO Global Atmospheric Watch FluxNet TCCON NOAA

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 11 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Sampling, Analysis, Calibration Tall Towers Light Aircraft Portable flask packages Automated flask analysis Cooperative sampling World calibration scale In situ sampling Satellites FTIR Q-C Lasers

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 12 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Learning from Long Term Records A call for sustained, continuous measurements of greenhouse gases A warning of the importance of maintaining an on-going war on measurement biasbias

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 13 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems For Regional Scale Resolution and Lower Uncertainty... More Observations (x 10?)  Atmosphere  Ocean  Terrestrial  Satellites  Improved Instrumentation Improved Modeling to Serve Smaller Footprints  Transport (÷ 10?)  Boundary Layer Understanding  Assimilation, Inversion, Diagnosis  Prediction Enhanced Computing Capacity QA/QC, Data Management

Incheon, Korea 17 Nov 2009 Page 14 CAS XV TECO JH Butler – GHG Observing Systems Questions? 14 “Carbon Weather” January (net CO 2 emission) July (net CO 2 uptake) Long-term Observations CarbonTracker TM