SCHOOL OF ENVIRONMENT International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Reducing potential impacts of climate change on farmers Dr Jim Salinger, University of Auckland, NZ Dr Zhai Panmao, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Outline Climate trends Climate scenarios Future climate Impacts on agriculture Adaptation

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Climate trends Results from three global datasets: NOAA (NCDC Dataset), NASA (GISS dataset) and combined Hadley Centre and Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (UK) (HadCRUT3 dataset)

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Climate trends Land warming faster than ocean, Ocean heat content increasing all the way down... Oceans taken over 90% of total heating. Southern Ocean/Antarctic not warming, yet...

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Climate trends

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Climate trends

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Climate trends Changes in drought,

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Climate scenarios

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Climate scenarios

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Climate Scenarios Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario Warming of about 0.2 o C per decade for next two decades for a range of scenarios 2.3 o C 3.3 o C 3.9 o C Higher emissions lead to more warming later in century. Further warming of ~ 0.6 o C for concentrations fixed in 2000 Global surface warming from pre-industrial level o C Adapted from IPCC, WG I 2007

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Future climate

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Future climate Precipitation

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Future climate

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Future Climate

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Future climate The most damage in China is caused by drought leading to an annual loss reach to 30 billion kilograms, taking 60 percent of the gross loss.

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Impacts on agriculture Crop yield –Likely to increase at higher latitudes for global average temperature increases of 1 to 3°C, then decrease –At lower latitudes especially dry tropics likely to decrease Global production –Likely to increase up to about 3°C, then decrease Droughts and floods –Negative impacts, especially subsistence sectors at low latitudes

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Impacts on agriculture In high latitude regions, if temperature increasing 1-3 ℃, the products of agriculture are predicted to raise slightly. In low latitude regions, especially in seasonal dry regions and tropical areas, temperature will be raising 1-2 ℃, the products of agriculture will also decline. Without adaptation, plant production to 2030 is likely to reduce 5-10%, especially for wheat, rice and corn.

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Agriculture loss caused by weather disaster, especially regional high temperature, drought and spring frost, will be aggravated. Stability of agriculture production decreased. Impacts on Agriculture (China) With increased mean temperature over a suitable range, the north boundary of winter wheat obviously extended northward and westward in NE China; the planting area of late planting corn expanded. Negative impacts (main) Positive impacts

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Impacts on agriculture

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Impacts on agriculture Cereal prices and temperature change

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Impacts on agriculture 0: not vulnerable; 1 ～ 5 ： vulnerability varies from low to high

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Sectors Adaptation measures 1°C temperature increase in June to August Choice of crop and cultivar: Use of more heat/drought-tolerant crop varieties in areas under water stress Use of more disease and pest tolerant crop varieties Use of salt-tolerant crop varieties Introduce higher yielding, earlier maturing crop varieties in cold regions Farm management: Altered application of nutrients/fertiliser Altered application of insecticide/pesticide Change planting date to effectively use the prolonged growing season and irrigation Develop adaptive management strategy at farm level Crop insurance for extremes Livestock production Breeding livestock for greater tolerance and productivity Increase stocks of forages for unfavourable time periods Improve pasture and grazing management including improved grasslands and pastures Improve management of stocking rates and rotation of pastures Increase the quantity of forages used to graze animals Plant native grassland species Increase plant coverage per hectare Provide local specific support in supplementary feed and veterinary service

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 SectorsAdaptation measures Fishery Breeding fish tolerant to high water temperature Fisheries management capabilities to cope with impacts of climate change must be developed Development of agricultural bio- technologies Development and distribution of more drought, disease, pest and salt-tolerant crop varieties Develop improved processing and conservation technologies in livestock production Improve crossbreeds of high productivity animals Improvement of agricultural infrastructure Improve pasture water supply Improve irrigation systems and their efficiency Improve use/store of rain and snow water Improve information exchange system on new technologies at national as well as regional and international level Improve sea defence and flood management Improve access of herders, fishers and farmers to timely weather forecasts

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Country examples Adaptation Measure Sudan - Drought Expanded use of traditional rainwater harvesting and water conserving techniques; building of shelter-belts and wind-breaks to improve resilience of rangelands; monitoring of the number of grazing animals and cut trees; set-up of revolving credit funds. Botswana - Drought National government programmes to re-create employment options after drought; capacity building of local authorities; assistance to small subsistence farmers to increase crop production. Philippines – Drought and floods Adjustment of silvicultural treatment schedules to suit climate variations; shift to drought-resistant crops; use of shallow tube wells; rotation method of irrigation during water shortage; construction of water impounding basins; construction of fire lines and controlled burning; adoption of soil and water conservation measures for upland farming. Mexico and Argentina – Drought Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety (e.g., inclusion of drought- resistant plants such as agave and aloe); accumulation of commodity stocks as economic reserve; spatially separated plots for cropping and grazing to diversify exposures; diversification of income by adding livestock operations; set-up/provision of crop insurance; creation of local financial pools (as alternative to commercial crop insurance).

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Adaptation - China Improve agricultural infrastructure Improve management measurements of agriculture Develop modern biology and new technology Adjust composition and distribution of agricultural crops Actively plan to adjust agriculture structure, intensify management and improve agricultural infrastructure; new technology to strengthen the ability to cope with and adapt to negative impact of climate change; reduce losses and get potential benefits. Protect ecosystem environments Protect ecosystem environments

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Adaptation - China Adjust crop varieties and distribution 。 Global warming and extension of growth period may be good for crop production poleward. Scientifically modify the planting schedule. Design, foster and select breeds that can resist drought, flood and high temperature; adopt technology measurement to resist, guard against disaster and prevent plant diseases and insect pests that may be aggravating. Analyzing future new structure of distribution of light, temperature, water source and agricultural weather disasters; improving varieties of crop breeds.

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Adaptation - China Developing modern biology and new technology Fostering adaptive and high quality new breeds is a very important method for agriculture to adaptive climate change. To decrease the negative impacts of climate on agriculture, selecting suitable cultivars is an important adaptive countermeasure. Necessarily strengthening development of high and new technology such as photosynthesis, biological nitrogen fixation, biological technology, resisting adversity, establishing agriculture and extractive agriculture to intensify the ability of agricultural product system to adapt climate change.

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Adaptation - China Modifying regulation on agricultural management At the same time, implement modern management on agriculture, decreasing agricultural production cost, increasing land utilization rate and output ratio, and investigating the extension of technology of precision cultivation. Advancing the comprehensive technology of curing saline alkali soil and soil erosion to escalate low-middle yield fields to high yield fields slowly. The main method of improving the agricultural ecosystem’s ability of adapting climate change is to modify agricultural management strategies by efficiently utilizing water, preserving soil structure, enhancing irrigation and fertilization, prevention and protection against plant diseases and insect pests, and spreading ecology agricultural technology.

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Adaptation - China Improving agricultural infrastructure Developing modern agricultural product technology, and strengthening engineering construction for natural disaster prevention. The northern arid and semi-arid region tend to be drier. One important adaptive measure is that of improving soil and managing water, through strengthening basic construction of cropland, improving agricultural ecosystems, constructing high and stable yield croplands and continually appraise the adaptive capacity to climate change and the abilityy to resist and mitigate disaster. Continually strengthen capacity of agricultural ecosystems to meet emergency and resist disaster.

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Adaptation - China Strengthening the protection on ecosystem environments Constructing protective and continuous development system of breeding, management and biological diversity of forest, grassland and so on Strengthening management of deposit and substitute on ecosystem Improving the protection, management, surveillance and regulation on natural ecosystem like forest and grassland.

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Conclusions In a world where the disparity of wealth, culture, or access to technology is very different from one region to another, environmental change will have different effects on different people In certain regions climatic factors may be a dominant driver, in others they may just exacerbate a critical pre-existing socio- economic situation

International Workshop on Addressing the Livelihood Crisis of Farmers: Weather and Climate Services, Belo Horizonte, Brazil, July 2010 Conclusions In view of the long inertia of environmental and climate change, it will not be possible to stop current trends rapidly Adaptation to change is thus the only viable strategy to avoid social hardship now and in the future Insurance will be an essential strategy to enable agriculture to manage change Raising awareness of vulnerable populations to negative impacts through education and outreach is another