einstitute.worldbank.org Emerging Issues in Development Policy Africa’s emergence and the implications for the aid architecture January 31, 2013 | 10:00 AM EST Speaker: Wolfgang Fengler Lead Economist World Bank, Nairobi

Main messages o Africa is starting to catch-up but yet to experience economic transformation. Over the last decade Africa experienced a recovery after two lost decades. o The y-factor explaining Africa’s emergence: Demography, Geography, Technology and Policy. o Africa’s emergence will have major implications for the future aid architecture. From now on, most of the World’s poor live in fragile states. 2

Africa’s emergence 3

Africa’s three distinct periods of economic performance 4

Africa’s catch-up since World Developing High-income Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa’s ride to Middle Income

Most of the poor now live in fragile states 7

The y-factor Demography – Geography – Technology – Policy 8

Demography: Africa will experience a demographic dividend 9

… while Europe and North America’s share in global population is declining 10

Geography: Africa is urbanizing rapidly 11

Geography; Example Kenya: Net population growth will be urban 12

Technology: Today, Africa has more phones than adults 13

Policy, especially macroeconomic management 14

.. but many challenges remain, especially governance 15

Africa’s economies are yet to transform Example: Kenya’s exports 16

The need to deliver aid differently 17

The Old Reality of Aid 18

The New Reality of Aid 19

Since 1992, aid has doubled, mainly due to the emergence of new players 20 Total Development Assistance from OECD, 1992 Total Development Assistance from OECD, 2008

The total number of projects has quadrupled while the average size declined sharply (ODA only) 21

Aid engagements: Past 22 Fragile Stable poor MIC HIC Intensity of engagement

Aid engagements: Fragile Stable poor MIC Intensity of engagement HIC

Thank you Wolfgang Fengler 24