Overview and Methodology Poverty Environment Nexus (PEN) study World Bank Magda Lovei, Jostein Nygard and Rob Swinkels

Overview and Methodology Presentation Overview 1.Why Focus on PEN in Vietnam 2.Methodology 3.Poverty Indicators 4.Environment Indicators 5.Linkages between Poverty and Environment 6.Selection Criteria and Program Structure

1. Why Focus on PEN in Vietnam

Overview and Methodology Understand poverty environment linkages. Embed environment into poverty reduction strategies. Objective: Study designed to identify specific project proposals addressing both poverty alleviation and environmental protection. Why Focus on PEN in Vietnam

Overview and Methodology Economic growth i) GDP growth around 7.5 percent ii) Industrial growth at around 16 percent ii) Foreign Direct Investment increasing at present Poverty Reduction –Especially in low lands –Poverty persists in mountainous and central highlands Country Context Economic Growth Poverty Reduction

2. Methodology

Overview and Methodology A study that identifies cases where poverty reduction and environmental protection are complementary goals (win-win situations) What is the PEN study?

Overview and Methodology Direction of causality typically difficult to establish -Are poor people the main victims of degradation? –Do poor people cause environmental degradation? Importance of many intervening variables (e.g., fuel choice, hygiene practices) Analytical challenge (i)

Overview and Methodology Empirical Evidence is relatively limited Environmental problems tend to be related to natural resource base and thus inherently spatially defined Analytical Challenge (ii)

Overview and Methodology Phase I: Modes of analysis adapted to limited data availability and quality –Correlation analysis - Mapping –Regressions- Rankings Phase II: Further national level analysis complements case studies (increasingly demand led) –Commune, Village, household, plot level data collection in sample regions –Relatively small samples, not statistically significant at higher levels of aggregation –Mix of qualitative and quantitative questions (usually respondent assessment, not measured) Methodology

3. Poverty Indicators Poverty in Vietnam at various administrative levels the way forward

Overview and Methodology Poverty definition One definition: being poor is not being able to meet your basic consumption needs (food, clothes, housing etc). This can be measured through determining someone’s income or consumption expenditure Non-monetary poverty also important Inequality: relative poverty

Overview and Methodology Which data on poverty in Vietnam are reliable? The Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) is by far the best data source on poverty in Vietnam It uses one fixed method across the whole country It is internationally recognized as being top class MoLISA poverty rates are ‘subjective’ and cannot be compared across commune, districts or provinces. They are unreliable at the aggregate level And they are driven by targets set in advance

Overview and Methodology How to determine a poverty line Identify a basket of goods that one needs in Vietnam to lead a decent live. The value of this set of goods is the poverty line This can be calculated using the VHLSS Poverty incidence: proportion of people who consume less than the poverty line

Overview and Methodology Poverty lines (cont’d) In 2002 the GSO ‘expenditure’ poverty line was VND 160,000 per capita per month (average for both urban and rural) But in 2004 GSO and MoLISA jointly updated the basket of goods and agreed that the new poverty line for 2005 is –VND 200,000 (rural areas) –VND 260,000 (urban areas

Overview and Methodology Provincial poverty rates according to MoLISA and GSO

Overview and Methodology VHLSS is a sample survey And thus can only measure poverty at the national and provincial level. For sub-provincial level one can use ‘poverty mapping’ techniques

Overview and Methodology What is poverty mapping? It identifies ‘proxy-indicators’ that are closely related to consumption expenditure (education level, type of house, assets etc) The national census has data on proxy- indicators for everyone in Vietnam Thus census can be used to estimate expenditure for everyone and then estimate commune and district level poverty rates

Overview and Methodology Poverty rates at three administrative levels using poverty mapping

Overview and Methodology Poverty density This measures how many poor people live in a particular area. It shows where in Vietnam most poor people live

Overview and Methodology Depth of poverty This measures how far below the poverty line the poor are. The farther someone’s expenditure is below the poverty line the ‘deeper’ their poverty

Overview and Methodology This shows the total of the poverty gap of all poor people in an area (district) Combining poverty depth & poverty density

4. Environment Indicators

Overview and Methodology Sustainable Land Use Indicators –Forest cover, Land gradient Access to Water and Sanitation Industrial Pollution Indoor Air Pollution Outdoor Air Pollution Health Impacts Natural Disasters Environment Indicators

Overview and Methodology Environment data collection isn’t systematic –National: Often based on administratively reported data rather than on independent and consistent measurement (e.g. forest cover trends from village reporting rather than from satellite interpretation) –Regional: Mekong River Commission generates and compiles valuable base data –Contradiction between different data sources, especially out of sectors with large- household surveys (e.g. natural resources and pollution). –Many data gaps and often very little information over time Challenges in data access

Overview and Methodology Environment Indicators Massive deforestation in last 4 decades –Agricultural –Population –Commercial Largest forest loss occurring in area with high poverty Poor do not benefit from commercial logging Deforestation Rate Forest Cover

5. Linkages between poverty and Environment

Overview and Methodology Methods – Correlation Analysis District-level Rural Poverty and Natural Forest area ρ = 0.45 Date sources: Govt of Vietnam

Overview and Methodology Correlation with Province-level Poverty

Overview and Methodology Methods – Methods – Map overlays Elevation zones are one of several indicators where overlays with poverty are useful. Poverty rates, 1999

Overview and Methodology Methods – Methods – Map overlays Poverty rates increase with elevation, but numbers of poor are highest in low elevation areas

Overview and Methodology Poor Area Vs Poor People Upland Low poverty density (small absolute number of poor) High poverty rates Remaining natural resources (forests, wildlife) Poor access to services and economic opportunities Lowland High poverty density (large number of poor) Low poverty rates More dynamic economy in cities and highly dynamic rural areas Comparatively more severe environmental problems due to pollution and overuse of resources such as water

6. Selection Criteria and Program Structure

Overview and Methodology Prioritized sectors in poverty reduction plans Number of poor affected Severity of effects (income, health, vulnerability, social/cultural) Alleviated by national economic growth? Local capacity (institutional, financial) Cost effectiveness (including administration cost) Selection Criteria

Overview and Methodology Environment and Health Indicators Estimated number of people affected % of non-poor population% of poor population Forest resources / DegradationData needed Land DegradationData needed Traditional fuels/indoor air80%>98% Respiratory illness – Children < 56.5%11.7% Lack of safe water supply15%35% Lack of sanitation12 – 14%21 – 24 % Diarrheal illness – Children < 57.5 %14.5 % % employment in fisheries2.6 %0.5 % Flooding (1980 – 2001)1.3 %1.1 % Forest (ha per 1000 population)13145 Forest (ha 1000 per province)1498 Forest (% of total land area)4 %9 % Ag output value / ha (mill Dong) Non PoorProvinces (50 – 80 %) Infant Mortality Rate2450 Flat ProvincesMountains Poverty Incidence28 %54 %

Overview and Methodology Case Study Overview Main topics Sub-topicsImplementing Agencies Locations of study areas NRM (incl. land) and Poverty 1.1 Land administration, poverty and environment (particularly related to the new land law) TECOS, (firm affiliated to MONRE). Tuyen Quant (Northern Mountains), Nghe An (Northern Central), Binh Dinh (Central Coastal) 1.2 Natural Resource Management in Uplands Integrated case study: Socio-economic Development Center (SEDEC), recommended by MPI Bac Kan (Upstream in Cau River Basin) WSS, industrial pollution, hygiene, health, and Poverty 2.1 Disproportionate health effects of contaminated/polluted water quality on poor people Bac Ninh (Down stream in Cau River Basin) 2.2 Impact of pesticide use on different income groups. COEH of VAOH & UOE in HCMC 6 provinces in the Mekong River delta 2.3 Poverty and Industrial pollution in Vietnam Research Center for Energy & Environment, MONRE recommended Data from 13 provinces, craft villages in Red River Delta 2.4 Different health effects for poor & non-poor from access to WS and IAP from fuels use. Expert group at Hanoi Medical College, recommended by MoH Nationwide, based upon VN National Health Survey (NHS)

Overview and Methodology Vietnam: (Ongoing) - Land Administration – Poverty with MONRE (part case studies) Vietnam: (Ongoing) - Land Administration – Poverty with MONRE (part case studies) Vietnam: (TORs, design completed) -Song Cau River Baisn, upstream and downstream with MPI Vietnam: (TORs, design completed) -Song Cau River Baisn, upstream and downstream with MPI Vietnam: (Completed) -Pesticide use – Poverty (partly with MONRE) 6 pro- vinces in the MRD Vietnam: (Completed) -Pesticide use – Poverty (partly with MONRE) 6 pro- vinces in the MRD Vietnam: (TORs, design completed) -Industrial Pollution & poverty Case Studies in the Red River Basin, 2 nd data collection in 13 provinces Vietnam: (TORs, design completed) -Industrial Pollution & poverty Case Studies in the Red River Basin, 2 nd data collection in 13 provinces PEN Studies (Vietnam) Vietnam: (Ongoing) - Clean Water, Sanitation, indoor air pollution, health effects, poverty. National wide study Vietnam: (Ongoing) - Clean Water, Sanitation, indoor air pollution, health effects, poverty. National wide study

Overview and Methodology Presentation of four individual PEN case studies (“green” and “brown” PEN agenda). Presentation of PEN case study (Song Cau) reflecting several PEN sectors. Discuss possible incorporation of PEN findings into SEDP and poverty reduction plans. Agenda for the workshop

Overview and Methodology END