Trade Politics and Bilateral Trade Agreements 1 Report Delivered October 9, 2008 By: Stefanie Westerman

Trade Politics – History Bilateral Agreements – To date Politics of Bilateral Agreements Problems Solutions Overview 2

From the start of our country until 1934, US trade politics was inward looking 1934 – Secretary of State, Cordell Hull Great Depression had discredited protectionism Post World War II 1960s – support for trade liberalization began to lessen Trade Adjustment Assistance 1974 – Trade Promotion Authority It's not the facts on the ground; it's the politics in the air – Charlie Rangel 3 History of Trade Politics

Bilateral Trade Agreements 4 Definition Israel, President Ronald Reagan 1989 – Canada, President George H.W. Bush NAFTA 2000 – Jordan, President Bill Clinton _______________________________________ Trade Diversion & Trade Creation Economic/Security Interests Undermine the WTO Multilateral System?

Status of Free Trade Agreements Negotiated Since Trade Promotion Authority was Restored in Country Negotiations Launched Negotiations Completed Approved by Congress Entry into Force Chile XXXJanuary 1, 2004 Singapore XXXJanuary 1, 2004 Australia XXXJanuary 1, 2005 Morocco XXXJanuary 1, 2006 DR-CAFTA Costa Rica Dominican Rep. El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua XXXEl Salvador and the United States: Mar. 1, 2006; Honduras: April 1, 2006; Nicaragua: April 1, 2006; Guatemala: July 1, 2006; Dominican Republic: March 1, 2007 Bahrain XXXAugust 1, 2006 Oman XXX Peru XXX Colombia XX Panama XX Korea XX Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce

6 Trade Politics of Today May 10, 2007 – fundamental change to US trade policy labor, environmental regulation, intellectual property, port security, and investment in trade agreements Peru FTA passed in 2007 Colombia under TPA, vote to stop the clock TAA needed Colombia, Panama and South Korea signed but pending Congressional Approval

Bilaterals and Trade Politics So many votes on FTAs since 2002 Difficult for Congress Communication between Administration and Capitol Hill Bilaterals: Flare points more easily identified 7

Current Problem TPA – Power of Congress Significance of Bilateral Agreement Economic Gain Foreign Policy Imperative Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (P-4) Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, and Brunei 8

9 Solution Stop negotiating bilateral agreements and focus on regional/multilateral deals. Trade education TAA State Level Trade Delegations – build up support/economic impact on a local level Meet with leaders in key Capitols around world Find new ways of communicating with the Hill

Candidates Positions 10 McCain Continue negotiating bilateral agreements Very supportive of WTO and multilateral Obama Renegotiate NAFTA – labor/environment Regretful Doha round collapsed in July, but right for the US to walk away USTR TPA?

11 Conclusion Domestic Impact of Solution Global Impact of Solution A Member of Congress is placed in the position of weighing the effects of his/her constituency verses the overall impact on the United States and other trading partners. William Cooper Questions?

Sources Used 12 BNA International Trade Daily, Democrats Pledge to Work Through Multilateral Fora to Achieve Trade Goals, August 19, Connell, Sean. US Korea FTA Position Paper. U.S.-Korea Business Council, Cooper, William. Free Trade Agreements: Impact on U.S. Trade and Implications for U.S. Trade Policy. CRS Report for Congress, July 23, Council on Foreign Relations, The Presidential Candidates on Trade, May 22, Cut a deal on Colombia, Los Angeles Times, April 12, 208. Dauster, William. U.S. Senate Committee on Finance, Trade Promotion Authority Annotated, February Destler, I.M. American Trade Politics. Washington DC: Institute for International Economics, 4 th ed Forecast on Latin America and the Caribbean Conference, AACCLAs 41 st Annual Meeting, September 22-23, Griswold, Dan. Bilateral Deals are no Threat to Global Trade. CATO Institute, July 28, Griswold, Dan. Dems betray our ally Colombia. CATO Institute, April 18, Morrison, Wayne and William H. Cooper. The Future Role of U.S. Trade Policy: An Overview. CRS Report for Congress, July 14, Reid, John. Chamber Welcomes Bipartisan Deal to Move Trade Agenda Forward, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, May 10, U.S. Trade Representative, Dates you need to Know on Colombia, Strawbridge, Jamie. TAA, Colombia Deal Must Move Together To Succeed Finance TAA Markup In Doubt; Service Workers Extension Toughest, Inside US Trade, June 20, Stout, David. Bush to Force Vote on Colombia Trade, The New York Times, April 7, U.S. Department of State. Foreign Trade and Global Economic Policies, Info USA, White House, President Signs Trade Act of 2002, Zoellick, Robert. Unleashing the trade winds, The Economist, December 2005.