The Demography of Islam in Europe ERIC KAUFMANN Birkbeck College, University of London

Franco-Algerian Exceptionalism 60 pc of those with at least one Algerian parent claim no religion (Amiraux 2004) Majority of Algerian origin men marry out Secular Kabyle and Harki loyalist traditions Appeal of French republicanism (??)

Young Muslim Populations Britain: 4.7 percent of those under 16 are Muslim, but just 0.6 percent of those over 65 are (2001) UK foreign-born population is 8.5 percent, but 1 in 5 births are to a foreign-born mother Austria: Muslims 8 percent of the under-10 population but only 0.2 percent of those over 70

Impact on Urban Youth Population Close to 'majority minority' or by 2050: Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Antwerp, Strasbourg, Marseille, Duisburg, Cologne, Blackburn, Bradford, Leicester, Dewsbury….. London: 1 in 2 births Paris: 1 in 3 Turin: 1 in 4, though just.2 percent of deaths Copenhagen: 1 in 5, Rome 15 %

Conclusion Muslims are 2-6 percent of western Europe Younger, more fertile, more religious We may expect falling fertility, but only limited intermarriage Secularization is limited Immigration a wild card By 2050, we expect pc Muslim in western Europe. Some higher/lower Urban concentrations