On the road to better…. Response analysis FSNWG Food Security and Nutrition Working Group Efforts in 2012 & 2013 July 2010

1. Situation Analysis with hotspot details Where are we now? 2. Situation Analysis seasonality for each livelihood system Where are we now? 3. Response analysis What could we be doing now? Situation & Response analysis – FSNWG 2012 Regional IPC Map Seasonal CalendarsResponse matrix 4. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecast Where are we going? 5. Predictive Analysis 3-6 month forecast for each livelihood system and wealth group Where are we going? 7. ADVOCACY & PLANNING What should we do? 6. Response analysis 3-6 month action plan What could we plan?

On the road to better…. Response analysis: July 2010 December 2012  … past attempts have been challenging  …is complex, with various layers of enquiry to define the most appropriate response  …is context specific – down to LZ & district level  …its logical or simple for those with intimate knowledge of an area  …needs to link emergency activities to long-term sustainable development goals – identification of no regrets options  …should incorporate lessons from past good practice  …investigate options outside the box – innovation is key

Finding a common framework using different approaches… Steps 1. Situation 2. Scenario 3. Response 4. Contingency Plan Task Current Conditions Trigger EventMost Likely Outcomes Explain Outcomes Response Options Response Selection Contingency Plan Purpose FSN situation Hotspot areas Affected pop. Analogue Year/Event Level of RiskCoping & Developm ent Objectives Options that best fit level of risk, coping, developmen t context RA considera- tions Preparedness for timely implementation Process IPC situation analysis FEWS NET Gov’t FSN WG e.g. KFSSG FSNAU…… IPC predictive analysis IGAD COF El Nino/La Nina WGs Scenario building (WFP, FEWS) HEA Outcome analysis RAF LEGS SPHERE RAF Decision trees Response selection matrix Contingency planning: Gov’t e.g. DSGs WFP NGOs Donors? Data FSN maps Seasonal calendars Prices Production etc FSN maps ICPAC NDVI CEWARN Pop data Trend data Quantify the problem HEA baseline data Livelihood Context RA considera- tions – FSN & market Calendars LT strategies Do No Harm indicators NDMA/ALRMP NGO plans & guidelines

Operating Environment  Situational analysis o Needs assessment o Causal analysis o Projection/forecast Feasibility analysis  Market assessment o Feasibility of market interventions  Donor resources  Organizational capacity  Partner agency capacity  Government policy  Access and security  Timeliness  Record of past programs o M&E records o Lessons learned documentation  Influence of large agencies  Conditionality/targeting considerations  Logistics  Value for money analysis Agency environment  Organizational considerations o Mandate and mission o Objectives in field o Capacity and skill set Appropriateness considerations  Internal comparison of response options – related to best practice  External analysis of gaps in response  Risk assessment/ prevention of unintended consequences o Market distortion risks o Staff security and safety o Recipient community security o Risk of theft, diversion or corruption o Reputational/legal risks to agency o Do no harm analysis o Fits into ongoing interventions  Cost effectiveness  Assessment of recipient preferences  Evidence of post-distribution dynamics Response Analysis Considerations adapted from Dan Maxwell et al. ODI

Regional seasonal calendars

Above normal Long rains Dry season AprilMayJuneJuly - Sept Milk available. Prices of staples increase slightly as own stocks diminish waiting for next harvest Agricultural labour opportunities available –weeding Good pasture/water availability Cattle & shoat condition good/price increases - although susceptible to disease. Improved availability of shoat & cattle milk Calving conditions good but protection to young livestock in wet/cold conditions Prolonged availability of pasture as rains are predicted to be good – access to milk Seasonal response options: April – June 2013….. Monitor Monitor rain performance and pasture and water regeneration, migration Monitor crop performance, if rains below- normal check marginal farmers/rainfed areas Looking forward to next dry season July – Sept Prioritise to keep kids in school Preserve milk and fodder for the dry season Diversification of off-farm income Expansion of safety nets/ FSL support Surge capacity of sectors Design short-term interventions contribute to long- term objectives Opportunity to invest in long-term – innovation, commercialisation, engage private sector, targeting settled poor

Cross-border Crisis Calendar Analysis: 2008/9 Garissa-Afmadow El Niño / floods Contingency Planning Assessment No contingency plan in place No analysis done on flood scenario Dissatisfaction with usefulness of existing CPs for droughts No mechanisms for coordination across-borders No mechanisms for joint strategic analysis and planning across-Districts What was done? Crisis calendar analysis Developed inter-agency cross-border response strategy Looked at start-up timelines Scheduled interventions and decisions Decided on cross-border coordination mechanisms Looked at what needs to change for this to work!

Flood analysis – Garissa & Afmadow Sept 09

Drought Wajir Pastoralists 2010/2011 – survival threshold deficits WSG: P 58%WSG: M 50% WSG: R 30%

Impact of moderate El- Niño 2012 : Turkana Agro-past Kerio Riverine Agro- pastoralists Very poor Livelihood deficit 11% Survival deficit 35% Poor Livelihood deficit 12% Survival deficit 10% Turkwell Riverine Agro- pastoralists Very poor Livelihood deficit 26% Survival deficit 9%

FSNWG Livestock & pastoral Sub-group Identification of response activities Sectors Livestock health & feed Human nutrition, health & sanitation Access & availability of food Water harvesting & collection Conflict & cross-border issues Infra-structure Access to markets & market prices Community-based Early Warning + Implications for programming + Drawing on best practice in similar analogue years + targeting hotspots & using on-going programming as entry points September 2012