U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013 Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Transportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants Association January 24, 2013

Source: National Weather Service U.S. Drought Monitor As of Tuesday, January 15

Source: United States Geological Survey U.S. Streamflow Monday, January 21, 2013

Source: United States Geological Survey Upper-Mississippi Streamflow Monday, January 21, 2013

Source: United States Geological Survey Missouri Streamflow Monday, January 21, 2013

Source: National Weather Service A tale of two grain belts – one very dry, one wet Precipitation Percent of Normal, 180-Day Period Ending Monday

U.S. Winter Wheat Production Average

Precipitation (Percent of Normal) Weighted By U.S. Crop Production 180-Day Period Ending Monday 68% of HRW wheat in drought, compared to only 10% of SRW wheat

Neutral Conditions Exist (Neither El Niño nor La Niña)

Neutral Conditions To Continue Through Summer Data source: Climate Prediction Center

U.S. Temperature Probability March-April-May

U.S. Precipitation Probability March-April-May

10 Driest May-December Periods In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Data source: National Climatic Data Center

March-April Precipitation After The 10 Driest May-December Periods In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Data source: National Climatic Data Center

U.S. Winter Wheat Yield Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Winter Wheat Yield After The 10 Driest May-December Periods In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Corn Production Average

U.S. Soybean Production Average

Ideal Weather For Highest U.S. Corn Yield

Ideal Weather For Highest U.S. Soybean Yield

U.S. Corn Yield Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Corn Yield (Departure From Trend) Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Corn Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation* * Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Soybean Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation* * Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

Summary A large-scale and intense drought is in progress May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013 Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields

U.S. Earthquakes Do you live in the Midwest or Mississippi Delta? Have you ever felt an earthquake?

San Francisco Earthquake Magnitude 7.9 on April 18, 1906

U.S. Earthquake Risk The risk of a major earthquake in the central U.S. “is as high as for places in California” – United States Geological Survey, 2007 Source: United States Geological Survey

Two Seismic Zones In The Corn Belt and Delta

Halloween Earthquake Near Cairo, Illinois Magnitude 6.8 on October 31, 1895 Source: United States Geological Survey

New Madrid Earthquake Sequence December 1811 – February earthquakes of Magnitude 7.8 – earthquakes of at least Magnitude 7.0 (not aftershocks) “…weeks to months…” of disruption would affect agriculture and its transportation infrastructure if a sequence recurred today – USGS 2009

South America Grains and Oilseeds

Argentina Precipitation Last 90 Days (Ending Monday )

Argentina Precipitation Last 30 Days (Ending Monday )

Argentina’s Recent Weather Pattern

Summary Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

Summary A large-scale and intense drought is in progress May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013 Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

Thank You! Questions? Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Website: Phone: (312) Toll Free Phone: (866) North Michigan Avenue Suite 1400 Chicago, IL 60611