White Avoidance or Attraction? Why white British tend to leave diverse wards Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, Birkbeck College

White Flight?

Save our Census! The permission of the Office for National Statistics to use the Longitudinal Study is gratefully acknowledged, as is the help provided by staff of the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information & User Support (CeLSIUS). CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/K000365/1). The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data. Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. The results presented are based on a test version of the LS database incorporating 2011 Census data. Figures may be subject to change when the final version of this database is released in November 2013.

Quintiles (ONS LS 2011) Diverse fifth of Wards Homogeneous four- fifths of Wards % Minority4.9% Minority % Minority2.4% Minority % Minority1.5% Minority White British net outflow Minority net outflow

Ordered Logit of Change in White Quintile in the direction of % White, Inter-ward movers only. (ONS Longitudinal Study):

Predicted Ward Minority Change among Inter-ward Movers, (BHPS/UKHLS) % Ethnic Minority in Ward a year ago % Change in Ethnic Minorities in Ward

Predicted Probability of Move Away from Diversity, Inter-ward Movers, (ONS LS) Most Diverse Ward Whitest ward Probability of move to less diverse ward quintile

Simpson (2007) Method Wards % White Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Quintile Total Toward diversity Away from diversity

Ordered Logit of Change in White Quintile in the direction of % White, Inter-ward movers only. (ONS Longitudinal Study):

White Flight?: Yougov-ESRC-BBK Survey, August 2013 Moved To Whiter Ward past 10 yrs Moved To More Diverse Ward past 10 yrsSample Not White British53%47%47 White British62%38%239 Total60%40%286

Comfort with spouse of different race among ward movers, White British only (Yougov/ESRC survey) To WhiterTo Diverse Sample very comfortable61%39%83 fairly comfortable67%33%33 neither comfortable n57%43%46 fairly uncomfortable64%36%11 very uncomfortable76%24%25 don't know58%42%24 Total63%37%222

Cultural Amenities not Ethnocentrism “If the church bulletin board is where people advertise rooms for rent, blacks will rent rooms from blacks and whites from whites because of a communication system…correlated with color” – Thomas Schelling 1978 White British family/friend/association networks and minority networks differ in England, affecting where people relocate once they decide to move Cultural amenities (food, recreation, religion) are also correlated with ethnic composition

Future Research Look at individual ethnic minorities to screen out friends & family effect Each ethnic group is relatively attracted to own area, i.e. Caribbeans to Caribbean areas, but white/minority appears to remain important

Integration with Ethnic Preference 54.2% 16.6% 5.3% ‘Segregation’ 8.2% ‘Integration’ White British Minorities

Prob. move away from Diversity by 4 quintiles Prob. move toward Diversity by 4 quintiles Prob. move away from Diversity by 1 quintile Prob. move toward Diversity by 1 quintile Increasingly white quintiles