LC TMDL Modeling Strategy W. Walker Walk Thru July 2011 Progress Report Data Strengths & Weaknesses Preliminary Testing Results Dynamic vs. Steady State.

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Presentation transcript:

LC TMDL Modeling Strategy W. Walker Walk Thru July 2011 Progress Report Data Strengths & Weaknesses Preliminary Testing Results Dynamic vs. Steady State Models Sensitivity & Uncertainty Analysis Software Demonstrations – BATHTUB – Load Calculation Ideas for Workplan

Tune Up Add TMDL Goal to TP Test Slide Hyperlinks Path Forward - Live

Path Forward Task..

Model Testing Results

Data Limitations vs Lower Sampling Frequency: weekly/biweekly -  monthly + high flow Less Winter Sampling No Minor Tributaries Tributary data limited in lake segments the deviate most from model predictions – Mississquoi Bay (missing Rock ) – St Albans Bay (no inflow data ) – South Lake (~46% of inflows gauged) Complexifying model will not improve forecasts if the inflows are not accurately specified General Ranking – : high – : low – : OK – : high

Precision of Measured TP Loads & Lake Concentrations

Number of TP Samples vs. Tributary & Water Year

Precision of Yearly TP Load Estimates Relative Standard Error = Std Error / Mean

Variability & Uncertainty

Model Categories Steady Steady-State Dynamic “Quasi-Dynamic”