Elements of Threat - Challenges for Visualisation Barry Horne Visualisation N/X Penn State University 11 March 2003

“Winston Wiley Deputy Director, CIA in 1998 discussed a number of generic threats. He suggests that the most direct threats will probably come from terrorism, and will include attacks against information systems such as critical infrastructure systems.” (However, international disputes with nation states and non-state actors such as pressure groups cannot be ruled out.) Transnational Threats to NATO in Winston Wiley. Deputy Director, CIA 10 February

Critical National Infrastructure Telecommunications Financial Institutions Utilities Transport Infrastructure Health Services Emergency Services Large Commercial complexes Critical Technologies/Manufacture Government Buildings Military Installations Law Enforcement organisations

Threat Actors Nation State Insider Terrorist Investigative Agency Criminal Commercial Groups Pressure Group Hacker

Some Characteristics of Conflict in the Information Age The growth in asymmetric adversaries and non- state actors (empowered small agents) –Freely available easy to use technology The globalization of information systems, financial markets and economies, and the media –Geographical borders irrelevant –Freely available massive data sets

Where do attacks/intrusions originate?

You can never be sure….. Eligible Receiver ‘97 –Demonstration of hostile penetration of CNI and DOD Solar Sunrise ‘98 –Systematic intrusions to DOD at time of tension in Gulf by Californian juveniles and Israeli ‘mentor’ Moonlight Maze ‘98 - Wake Up Call! –Large scale intrusions eventually traced back to dial-up Internet connections near Moscow –“We are in the middle of a cyber war” - Dr Hamre, Dep Sec Def

Level playing field Equity in intelligence (David Hall) Massive amounts of quality data available freely on Internet from official sources Non-attributable information gathering –Anonymous browsing –Internet café

What’s available in the Internet Candy Store? Utilities Transport systems Personal data Maps Imagery Economic data … and much more! And it’s all FREE! (No audit trail)

Anomalous behaviour? How to detect intelligence gathering on the Internet? Anomalous behaviour = –Terrorist gathering information? –Or –High school student geography project?