2002 Base 5 PM-2.5 Emissions and Preliminary PM-2.5 CMAQ Base 4 vs Base 5 Model Performance Evaluation June 4, 2007 St. Louis Modeling Workgroup Meeting

2002 Base 5 Emissions Changes - Point Sources Incorporated CENRAP Base G inventory –Corrected stacks and coordinates –Added sources previously missing in Arkansas –Updated SO2 emissions for Noranda Aluminum in Missouri Incorporated VISTAS Base G inventory Removed agricultural ammonia emissions that were double-counted with MRPO area source ag ammonia inventory Fixed day-of-week temporal issue with Missouri EGUs

Onroad mobile –Incorporated EW Gateway VMT data for St. Louis NAA counties –Corrected M6 inputs for MO-side St. Louis NAA counties Area sources –Applied transport factors to CENRAP dust emissions –Added missing MN dust emissions: construction, mining, ag tilling –Fixed hour-of-day temporal issue with ag ammonia 2002 Base 5 Emissions Changes - Non-Point Sources

2002 Annual Point Source NOx & SO2 Emissions - Selected CENRAP & VISTAS States Note: MRPO, WRAP, MANE-VU point source inventories did not change from Base 4 to Base 5.

2002 Annual Agricultural NH3 Emissions - CENRAP States Note: The double-counting of ag ammonia emissions in the point and area inventories only occurred in KS, MO, NE, and OK.

2002 Summer Weekday Onroad Mobile Emissions - Illinois and Missouri Note: For all states except Illinois and Missouri, onroad mobile emissions did not change from Base 4 to Base 5.

2002 Annual Dust PM-2.5 Emissions - CENRAP States Note: For states outside CENRAP, dust emissions did not change significantly from Base 4 to Base 5.

St. Louis PM2.5 MPE 2002 Base 5 Annual Emissions Changes St. Louis Monitoring Networks: –Federal Reference Method (FRM) for total PM 2.5 mass 16 sites in and near St. Louis (only 9 used) –Speciated Trends Network (STN) Speciated PM 2.5 : SO4, NO3, EC, OC, other PM 2.5

St. Louis Monitoring Networks = STN Site

PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q1 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km for Q1 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km Species for Q3 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km & 12km for Q3 at Blair St.

PM2.5 36km at all STN Stations (2-3)

PM2.5 Other STN 36km for Q1-Q4

PM2.5 FRM at Margaretta 36km for Q1-Q4

PM2.5 36km MPE at all FRM Stations (9)

Conclusions The largest performance change between Base4 and Base5 occurred in “PM2.5 Other” Statistically, Q1 & Q4 improved and Q2 & Q3 did not (all predictions were lower) No substantive changes in model performance for SO4, OC, EC, NH3 and NO3 Poor performance for Organic Carbon and Nitrate remain an issue

Recommendations Assess reasonableness of seasonal dust (crustal PM2.5) profiles Update biogenic emissions using new MEGAN model Incorporate updated speciation profiles (CB-05)

PM2.5 Control PM2.5 Implementation Rule –Attainment date extension Potential need Projected Year –RFP demonstrations –RACT demonstrations “Tightening” of growth/control assumptions used in 8-hour ozone SIP Pollutants of concern Regional vs. local control

2009 Base 5 Controls Point Sources –NOx SIP Call rule –MACT standard –IL NOx RACT –CAIR Trading Program (IPM 2.1.9) Onroad and Offroad Mobile –Tier 2 rule (light-duty vehicle engine standards and low- sulfur gasoline) –Heavy-duty diesel engine standards and low-sulfur diesel –Tier 4 rule (offroad mobile engine standards) –I/M and RFG

Preliminary SO2 Emissions: Missouri and Illinois Totals Note: All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base 5 except onroad mobile; onroad mobile emissions are from Base 4.

Preliminary NOx Emissions: Missouri and Illinois Totals Note: All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base 5 except onroad mobile; onroad mobile emissions are from Base 4.

Preliminary VOC Emissions: Missouri and Illinois Totals Note: All 2002 and 2009 emissions are from Base 5 except onroad mobile; onroad mobile emissions are from Base 4.

Big SO2 Sources in St. Louis NAA (TPY)

PM2.5 Control Rulemaking Schedule For the purposes of Missouri’s rulemaking schedule, decisions need to occur this summer These include pollutants of concern identification, RACT determinations, RFP findings, and attainment demonstration