© OECD/IEA – 2009 Economic Commission for Europe Committee on Sustainable Energy Ad Hoc Group of Experts on Harmonization of Fossil Energy and Mineral Resources Sixth Session, Geneva, March 2009 Contribution of the InterEnerStat Initiative to the Harmonisation of Definitions of Energy Flows and Products Jean-Yves Garnier Head, Energy Statistics Division International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA – 2009 A careful step-by-step approach Step 1Use a Momentum to bring together the main parties involved in international energy statistics Step 2Define together a strategy which could lead to harmonisation Step 3Collect the definitions on all flows and products from all organisations Step 4Place all these definitions in a central place accessible by all Step 5Hire a “neutral” consultant to look at differences and similarities and to propose draft harmonised definitions Step 6Circulate the proposed definitions to get comments from organisations Step 7Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions Step 8Incorporate decisions agreed in the meeting into a new set of almost finalised definitions Step 9Launch a new round of consultations for comments and approval Step 10Finalise the definitions Step 11Start to make use of the definitions … Step XHave a common questionnaire to all organisations

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 1 Decrease in the quality of energy statistics at the end of the 90s This was particularly true for global oil statistics A need to act and to react The JODI Initiative Use a Momentum to bring together the main parties involved in international energy statistics

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Quality of energy statistics was declining in the early 2000’s Completeness More and more data are estimated More and more data are estimated More and more data are missing and/or confidential More and more data are missing and/or confidential Less and less details, more aggregation (CHP, public vs. autoproducers, …) Less and less details, more aggregation (CHP, public vs. autoproducers, …)Quality Efficiency of power plants > 100% Efficiency of power plants > 100% Subtotals do not add up to totals Subtotals do not add up to totals Large statistical difference (>20%) Large statistical difference (>20%) Breaks in time series - no revisions in time series Breaks in time series - no revisions in time series “Other sectors” often used as a balancing item “Other sectors” often used as a balancing itemTimeliness More and more time to collect, process, check and release data More and more time to collect, process, check and release data

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Completeness: More and More Estimates Gas/Diesel Consumption in the Industry Sector TH TONS Quality: Frequent Breaks in Time Series Breaks in Series Completeness: More and More Estimates

© OECD/IEA – 2009 There are many reasons behind this deterioration Liberalisation of the market: From one company to hundreds Confidentiality (linked to liberalisation) More work passed to statistics offices: More companies to survey (liberalisation) Renewables (remote information) Energy efficiency indicators (including socio-economic data) Environment (estimation of GHG emissions, ….) Etc. Resources do not follow work load: Statistics still have a low profile, budget cuts Fast turnover in staff: lack of experience, continuity New developments make the tasks of statisticians even harder:

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Evolution of oil prices ($/bl) Blame on statistics? A quick focus on oil

© OECD/IEA – 2009 UN Secretaria de Energía Mexico Lack of harmonisation can lead to large discrepancies 5% gap APEC IEA OLADE OPEC UN Crude Oil Production for Mexico (in kbd) 3210

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Country:Month: Unit: APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN Decision was taken to adopt a joint simple questionnaire Simple Definitions Month -1 and Month -2 Choice of units left to organisations A Simple Format (42 data points)

© OECD/IEA – 2009 International Energy Forum Conferences JODI Conferences Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings International Energy Forum Conferences JODI Conferences Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings Amst. May 04 Mexico May 02 Paris Dec 03 Riyadh Nov. 01 Mexico May 02 Luxem. Jan 02 Vienna Apr 02 Madrid July 00 Bangkok Apr 01 Paris Nov 00 Riyadh Nov 00 Vienna May 01 Vienna Oct 01 Amst. May 04 Vienna Jan 03 Paris July 02 Paris Dec 03 Vienna Jun 04 Paris Nov 05 Riyadh Jan 05 Paris Jul 05 Riyadh Nov 05 Cairo Oct 03 Bali Oct 04 Osaka Sep 02 Luxem. Jan 06 Vienna Sep 06 N York May 06 Riyadh Nov 06 Doha May 06 Paris Nov 07 Paris Oct 08 Luxem. June 08 Vienna Mar 09 Quito June 09 Rome May 08 The JODI Initiative: a major success of the producer- consumer dialogue to improve oil data transparency

© OECD/IEA – 2009 The JODI database is updated every month Although still imperfect, the database is widely used by analysts and oil companies. Not possible to assess quality Use with caution

© OECD/IEA – 2009 What has JODI changed How Statistics is Viewed by Policy Makers and Analysts  Policy makers and analysts have realised that building a detailed, timely and reliable global database on oil supply and demand cannot happen overnight.  It involves political commitment, a great deal of cooperation between companies, countries and organisations. It also needs proper resources.  The place and role of statistics and statisticians have certainly benefited from JODI International Cooperation  JODI has contributed to strengthen links between organisations:  The strong cooperation between 7 JODI partner organisations is a great example of the strengthening of the links  InterEnerStat: JODI has created a momentum to further strengthen international cooperation not only on oil statistics but on all energy statistics On 19 November 2005, King Abdullah launched the JODI database live on internet

© OECD/IEA – international/regional organisations Both data providers and users Objectives: identify priority actions to strengthen cooperation and improve quality and transparency Step 2 Define together a strategy which could lead to harmonisation 1 st InterEnerStat Meeting, IEA, Paris, November 2005

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 2 (cont.) Harmonisation Methodologies Definitions Units Conversion factors Harmonised demands and questionnaires Handbooks and manuals Training Quality framework Harmonisation Methodologies Definitions Units Conversion factors Harmonised demands and questionnaires Handbooks and manuals Training Quality framework Co-operation Raising political awareness Harmonisation Joint Questionnaires Joint Training Common manuals Joint quality assessment Exchange of data Co-operation Raising political awareness Harmonisation Joint Questionnaires Joint Training Common manuals Joint quality assessment Exchange of data Priority areas of cooperation identified by participating organisations

© OECD/IEA – 2009 OCG 3 Vienna A few Milestones on the Road to Harmonisation InterEnerStat 1 November 2005 OCG 1 Oslo 1 st draft of the InterEnerStat website InterEnerStat 2 November 2007 OCG 2 Delhi 2 nd draft of the InterEnerStat website Ad hoc Energy Group Meeting UNSD, May 2005 InterEnerStat 3 October 2008

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 3 Key reference documents and manuals Main units used in energy statistics Definition of products used by organisations Links to databases Definition of flows used by organisations Short presentation of each organisation Collect the definitions on all flows and products from all organisations

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 4 List of reference documents by category Main units used in energy conversion Menu driven Definitions of products and flows from all the organisations who have definitions Place all these definitions in a central place accessible by all

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 4 (cont.) 2 nd InterEnerstat Meeting, IEA, Paris, November 2007 Improved website to better meet expectations of users

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 5 Hire a “neutral” consultant to look at differences and similarities and to propose draft harmonised definitions

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Circulate the proposed definitions to get comments from organisations Step 6

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 6 (cont.) Circulate the proposed definitions to get comments from organisations

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Sample of Comments Received

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Sample of Comments Received The definition as proposed by the consultant Comments received from organisations

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Only one objective: Discussion of the definitions of every single flow and product Step 7 The The 3 rd InterEnerStat Workshop IEA, October 2008 Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Tuesday 28Wednesday 29Thursday 30 Background Objectives Coal Renewables Electricity Flows (1 st session): Supply Transformation Flows (2 nd session): Consumption Oil Oil (cont.) What’s next Closing Natural Gas The 3 rd InterEnerStat Workshop IEA, October 2008

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 7 (cont.) Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 7 (cont.) Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 7 (cont.) Bring together all organisations to see if it is possible to reconcile the views of all to arrive at agreed definitions

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Hierarchy of Products Oil Crude Oil (includes field condensates when it is injected into crude) ? Oils from tar sands NGLEthanePropanebutanepentanes pentanes plus (plant condensates and field condensates – if not injected into crude oil) Refinery feedstock Additives/oxygenates Other hydrocarbons (includes orimulsion and shale oil, liquids from coal and gas) Petroleum products Refinery gas EthaneLPGNaphtha Aviation gasoline Motor gasoline Gasoline-type jet fuel Kerosene Kerosene-type jet fuel Other kerosene Gasoil/diesel oil Road diesel Heating and other gasoil Fuel oil White spirit and SBP Lubricants Paraffin waxes Petroleum coke Bitumen Other petroleum products

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Harmonisation of definitions of energy commodities and their flows Step 8 Incorporate decisions agreed in the meeting into a new set of almost finalised definitions

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Examples of Revised Definitions Definition Explanation Remark

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Step 9 Launch a new round of consultations for comments and approval

© OECD/IEA – 2009 The current and the next steps Step 10: additional comments have just been received from organisations, and will be incorporated to hopefully arrive at a final set of definitions agreed by all Step 11: To start to make use of the definitions ●A first candidate for the use of the work on harmonisation would obviously be the International Recommendations for Energy Statistics prepared by the Oslo City Group and UNSD

© OECD/IEA – 2009 The ultimate goal would be to have one questionnaire common to all countries and organisations WORLD BANK FAO UN EUROSTAT OPEC OAPEC ? Dream or reality? And if we look ahead…

© OECD/IEA – 2009 Harmonisation InterEnerStat has created a momentum to boost joint initiatives and cooperation © OECD/IEA, 2008 A lot of “unknown” work takes place in each organisation and between organisations Harmonisation Training Statistics Law Dissemination Manuals Thank You