Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia Northeast Gu th August, 2011 EUROPEAN COMMISSION Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Information for Better Livelihoods

Gu 2011 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations Normal access in all districts and livelihoods except Alula district due to political unrest

Main Livelihood Groups Seven Pastoral Livelihood Groups: Hawd, Sool Plateau, Nugal valley, Addun, East Golis, Karkaar Dharoor and Coastal Deeh Main Sources of Food and Income for the poor HH: o Primary sources of income is sale of livestock & livestock products (fishing & gums for Coastal and Golis) o Primary source of food is purchase o Primary livelihood assets are camel and sheep/goat

Overall statement: The overall performance of the season was near normal in Northeast, except pockets in Nugal, Coastal Deeh and east Golis. Start of Rains Started late in 3 rd Dekad of April in all livelihood zones Temporal and spatial distribution Bari Region: delayed, localized with average intensity. Nugal and Northern Mudug: Generally average with the exception of Coastal Deeh of Eyl, localized areas in southern Hawd of Garowe and northern Galkayo. Climate Gu 2011 Seasonal Performance Gu 2011 RFE percent from normal (long-term mean)

Climate Vegetation conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

Civil Insecurity Overall situation: Predominantly stable security situation Bossaso: Tension related with clan retaliation has renewed and escalated in Kobdhexaad of Bossaso district. Frankincense collection activities have been hampered in East Golis LZ Galkayo towns: Shooting and killing of the prominent figures on political ground in the town. Trade disruptions caused by instability of security situation. Presence of sea pirates in the water off the Coastal Deeh livelihood: Affects income to fishing communities as well as trade activities of local traders/merchants.

Cereal Flow Map Gu 2011 Cereal inflow from Togdheer through Sool and Sanaag regions

Pasture and Browse condition Generally pasture and rangeland condition is average with the exception of Coastal Deeh and adjacent areas of Sool Plateau, parts of East Golis (Qandala and of Bari region) and localized area in southern Hawd of Garowe and northern sector of Galkayo. Livestock Vegetation Conditions and Migration Migration: Livestock migration in most regions are normal with exceptions of Coastal Deeh and East Golis pastoralists which migrated to Sool Plateau of Qardho and Dharoor Valley - Iskushuban Water Condition Very Poor: In Coastal Deeh Poor: East Golis Normal: in elsewhere Water Prices: High (4,000SoSh/20 liter)

Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production RegionLivelihoods Conception (Gu ’11) Calving/kidding (Gu ‘11) Milk production (Gu ‘11) Expected calving/ kidding Jul – Dec ’11 Trends in Herd Size (Dec ‘11) NortheastHawd Pastoral Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: medium Sh/goat: low Camel: average Sh/goat: poor Camel : low to medium Sh/Goat: medium Camel: increase ( As Baseline) Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline) East Golis Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: low Sh/goat: low poor Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: slight decrease (No baseline) Goats: Decrease Karkaar/Dharoor Camel : low Sheep/Goat: medium Camel: medium Sheep/goat: low Camel: average Sheep/goat: poor Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: slight decrease Goats: Decrease (No baseline) Nugal Pastoral Camel : low Sheep/Goat: medium Camel: medium Sheep/goat: low Camel: average Sheep/goat: poor Camel : low Sheep/Goat: medium Camel: Increase (Below Baseline) Sh/goats: Increase (Below Baseline) Sool Pastoral Camel : low Sh/Goat: low Camel: low Sh/goat: low Camel: poor Sh/goat: poor Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: slight Increase (Below baseline) Sh/goats: significant decrease (Same as Baseline) Addun Pastoral Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: medium Sh/goat: low Camel: average Sh/goat: poor Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: increase (As Baseline) Goats: Decrease (Below Baseline) CoastalCamel : low Sh/Goat: low Camel: low Sh/goat: low Camel: poor Sh/goat: poor Camel : low Sh/Goat: medium Camel: Decrease Goats: Decrease (No baseline)

Livestock Livestock Prices

ToT1. Garowe2. Bosasso3. Galkayo Jun’1158 kg62 kg50 kg Jun’1066 kg72 kg46 kg 14%8%7% Livestock Terms of Trade (local quality goat/ rice) 1 2 3

Slight increase in Import Commodity Prices (last six months) Factors Affecting Commercial Import Prices: Increased global food prices Increased fuel prices Sea closure due to monsoon winds Trends in Imported Commodity Prices Vs Exchange Rate Markets

Livestock Exports-Bossaso

Destitute Camps and Families in Coastal Deeh, Hawd & Sool Plateau LZs Rahmo Camp, Beyla town, FSNAU, 2011 Kalabayr camp, FSNAU 2011 B/Beyla town, FSNAU 2011 New destitute camping in Galdogob, FSNAU, 2011

Gu 2011 Assessment Photos Pasture & livestock condition Poor pasture Harfo N. Galkayo, FSNAU 2011 Dharoor Valley, FSNAU 2011 Nugaal Valley FSNAU, 2011 Dried shallow well, Afdicin, Xaafuun, Iskushuban, FSNAU 2011

NORTHEAST Nutrition Situation Estimates Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2011 Aggravating factors:  AWD and cholera outbreak; Measles outbreak in Nugal and Bari regions  Low income and food access (low frankincense production, fishing and low milk production in Golis/Karkaar, Coastal Deeh in NE  Poor infrastructure, hindering transportation of commodities, or access to humanitarian assistance  Poor shelter in IDPs, high morbidity, inappropriate child feeding and care practices  Poor food access for IDPs Mitigating factors :  Humanitarian access in the Hawd in Northeast  Improved coverage of health programmes (polio and Vit A) in most LZs as a result of CHDs.  Active social support: limited kinship support Nutrition Situation Estimates, April 2011

NORTHEAST Summary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation Key IPC Reference Outcomes (Aug-Sep) Urban Population: Bari 75% P-AFLC; Mudug 100% P AFLC; Nugaal 100% P AFLC Rural population: Hawd 100% P AFLC; Addun; 25% P HE; 75% P AFLC; Karkaar100% P AFLC; East Golis100% P AFLC; Sool Plateau 25% P HE; 75%P AFLC; Coastal Deeh 75%P HE; 25% P AFLC Acute malnutrition: Overall Serious to Very Critical in IDPs Food Access: Severe entitlement gap, unable to meet 2,100 Kcal ppp day Water Access: Average of ltrs ppp day ( human usage only) Destitution/Displacement: Predominantly stable security situation with increasing pastoral destitution in mainly Coastal Deeh and Sool Bari region Coping: Distress strategies and high indebtedness for food and water expenses during prolonged Jilaal season Livelihood Assets: Accelerated and critical depletion or loss of access Main Contributing Factors: Deteriorated rangeland and water conditions in Costal Deeh, East-Golis and parts of Addun LHZs due to below average Gu ‘11 rainfall Prolonged dry conditions leading to increased livestock asset loss (sheep/goats) and miscarriages among camel in all livelihoods Below average camel milk production in most livelihoods Significant increase in local cereal prices following the crop failure in southern Somalia Moderate increase in imported cereal (rice) prices Reduced terms of trade (27%): local quality goat to red sorghum (65kg/head in Jun ’10 to 41kg/head in Jun ‘11) Reduced fishing activities due to piracy in Coastal Deeh and Monsoon season MAP 1: IPC April 2011 MAP 2: IPC Gu 2011

NORTHEAST Rural Population in Crisis by livelihoods

NORTHEAST Rural Population in Crisis by District

NORTHEAST Urban Population in Crisis District UNDP 2005 Total Population UNDP 2005 Urban Population Deyr 2010/11 Gu 2011 Acute Food &Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Acute Food & Livelihood Crisis (AFLC) Humanitarian Emergency (HE) Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population Bari Bandarbayla 14,3765,4002, , Bossaso 164,906107,18136, , Caluula 40,00213,0004, , Iskushuban 45,0278,5083, , Qandala 42,50215,6005, , Qardho 60,82529,94410, , Sub-Total 367,638179,63360, , Nugaal Burtinle 34,6748,6694, , Dan Gorayo 20,3315,5993, , Eyl 32,3457,0863, , Garoowe 57,99133,39515, , Sub-Total 145,34154,74925, , North Mudug Galdogob 40,4337,0672, , Jariiban 39,2076,3412, , Sub-Total 79,64013,4084, , Grand Total 592,619247,79089, ,