Global Futures Advisory Committee and Technical Working Group Meeting Saturday, April 16, 2011 Mt. Kenya Safari Club, Nanyuki, Kenya

Outline 1 Global Futures Tasks – Current state – Issues What is next Questions

Outline 2 1.High performance cluster 2.IFPRI CC monograph comments 3.Report on crop/system productivity potential 4.Crop modeling 5.Crop spatial data (SPAM data) 6.IMPACT enhancement

High Performance Cluster 1 Installed as of January 2011 Using Amazon cloud sources The infrastructure can be turned on when needed Nodes can be optimized depending on needs Can be accessed from many different locations (CGIAR CRP-GRiSP) for software installation The speed is much faster than a connection to a system within the IRRI infrastructure Not intended to run graphics-intensive (e.g. GIS) operations but unattended heavy processing

High Performance Cluster 2 Issues: – Installation of the regional to global scale crop prediction IFPRI routine – Activate computational resources – Real computer to keep the GIS portion of the exercise – This process may be complemented by the routine already developed at IRRI in the GIS group Question: – Can we use the regional to global scale crop prediction IRRI routine?

IFPRI CC Monograph Comments 1 Feedback was provided on the recently published IFPRI CC MonographFeedback was provided on the recently published IFPRI CC Monograph – Comments on the biophysical base of climate change (Reiner Wassman) – A preliminary factual assessment on rice supply (Axel Tonini) –

IFPRI CC Monograph Comments 2 Biophysical base of CC. Issues: – Sea level rise – Extreme events – Irrigated rice assumed to be unaffected by precipitation changes – Cap on modeled yields (20% at pixel level)

IFPRI CC Monograph Comments 3 Factual assessment on baseline. Issues: – The international price development for rice seems too conservative – Area appears to decline too fast in several countries (India, Indonesia, Myanmar, South Korea) – Yield grows too fast for China, Japan and extremely fast for Kenya and Mozambique – The net trade positions of Bangladesh, China and India are unrealistic – Expected new Baseline for comments on May 15

IFPRI CC Monograph Comments 4 Questions: – Was this information useful? – How could we merge and make available the baseline validation information from the different CGIARs? – Will the next baseline be available by May 15, 2011?

Report on Rice Productivity Potential The report was submitted on 16/03/2011 Issues: – Helpful in starting the interaction process with breeders – Difficult to obtain and compile information from the breeders Question – What will be the dissemination format of these technical reports? IFPRI monograph on productivity potentials?

Crop Modeling 1 Coupling Oryza 2000 with DSSAT by December 2011 (IRRI, U of Florida) Issue: – Time and capacity – Collect information on cropping calendars and fertilizer application schemes (when?, why?) Question: – Follow the GIS-GRASS routine or the IRRI routine in ArcGIS for the global predictions?

Crop Modeling 2 Preliminary workplan: – Coupling of Oryza2000 with DSSAT (by December 2011) – Translation of the defined VCs into Oryza 2000 (May- June 2011) – GIS-GRASS/IRRI ArcGIS global predictions (September 2011?) – Translation of potential yields into IMPACT (October- November 2011?)

Crop Spatial Data 1 Data on rice production, area and yields were submitted for most Asian countries The process is ongoing and needs to be improved Comments were received for India and Myanmar Issues: – very intensive, – administrative units may change over time

Crop Spatial Data 2 Data on rice production, area and yields were submitted for most Asian countries The process is ongoing and needs to be improved Comments were received for India and Myanmar Issues: – very intensive, – administrative units may change over time

Crop Spatial Data 3 Question: – How to share the different CGIAR experiences in providing SPAM data? – Timeframe for delivery?

IMPACT Enhancement 1 Tasks: – Provide feedback on baseline projections for rice – Contribute to the modeling improvement of the effect of border measures and domestic measures of support A concept note was provided during the latest meeting in Washington DCA concept note was provided during the latest meeting in Washington DC A report on the latest Washington DC meeting is availableA report on the latest Washington DC meeting is available

IMPACT Enhancement 2 Issues: – Options modeling trade policies: 1.Net trade structure 2.Spatial net trade structure (Takayama-Judge) 3.Bilateral trade base on CES Armington assumption – Domestic policies for rice are sparsely available and not always reliable as compared to border measures. Need to review and check data availability

IMPACT Enhancement 3 Preliminary IMPACT workplan: 1.Write a methodological paper (April 1-June1, 2011) 2.Collect data (t.b.a.) 3.Modify price transmission equations for rice (t.b.a.) 4.Construct and calibrate baseline for rice (t.b.a.) 5.Perform scenario analysis on trade (t.b.a.) 6.Write a paper on results (t.b.a.)

General Questions Template/Content/Structure for the Report to be handed in by June 15 Need to establish a vertical and horizontal coordination for the IMPACT enhancement – Vertical: indentify a key reference person at IFPRI for the different methodological developments – Horizontal: establish some rule of conduct for GAMS code modifications and define how the different improvements will be incorporated

General Questions Technical questions on IMPACT: – How the yield growth rates have been generated for IMPACT? How expert information enters in this process? – How the PSE/CSE indicators for non-OECD countries have been constructed? – …