Joyashree Roy and Research Team Global Change Programme Jadavpur University, Kolkata

IPCC Key message: climate change is a development issue and can be solved

Source :IPCC, 2007

Projected climate change Development path with HIGH base emissions Development path with LOW emissions

What should world do? Mitigate as well as Adapt

Why talk of Adaptation ? If we accept that warming will continue. Likelihood? High chances Current level of GHGs compared to pre- industrial period is 430 ppm, safe limit is 450 ppm. CO 2 alone 280 to 379ppm

Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 % Total GHG emissions GtCO2- eq/yr

With current climate change mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades IPCC SRES scenarios: % increase of GHG emissions in 2030 relative to that of 2000 Two thirds to three quarters of the increase of CO2 emissions are projected to come from developing countries Average per capita CO2 emissions in developing country regions will remain substantially lower (2.8– 5.1 tCO2/cap) than in developed country regions ( tCO2/cap) GtCO2eq/yr IPCC

Temperature 1C: 440 ppm Co2 2C: 450 3C:550 4C:650 5C: 750 *preindustrial Current 430 Food +/-, water – Food +/-, water -, ecosystem-, extreme weather events -, irreversible impacts

Projected impacts of climate change 1°C2°C5°C4°C3°C Sea level rise threatens major cities Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Food Water Ecosystems Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C Falling yields in many developed regions Rising number of species face extinction Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Significant fall in water availability e.g. Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small mountain glaciers disappear – melt-water supplies threatened in several areas Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions Source: stern review

Mitigation is the best strategy

The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global emissions have to go down Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

Decarbonisation target 0.3%/yr historical rate Target O.6%-2.5% DC rate CO 2 eq :50% below today’s level by times improvement over BAU energy intensity

Both Technology and Life style choice can solve this Relative cost ?

What Technology can do

Science and Economics Says All sectors and countries have reduction potential Source : IPCC 2007

Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels Stababilization level (ppm CO 2 -eq) Global Mean temperature increase at equilibrium (ºC) Year global CO 2 needs to peak Year global CO 2 emission s back at 2000 level Reduction in 2050 global CO 2 emissions compared to – – to – – to – – to – – to – – to – – to +140 IPCC

What are the macro-economic costs in 2030? Trajectories towards stabilization levels (ppm CO 2 -eq) Median GDP reduction[1][1] (%) Range of GDP reduction [2][2] (%) Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates [3] [3] (percentage points) – 1.2< – 2.5< [4][4]Not available< 3< 0.12 [1][1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates. [2][2] The median and the 10 th and 90 th percentile range of the analyzed data are given. [3][3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in [4][4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines. Costs are global average for least cost appoaches from top-down models Costs do NOT include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages IPCC

How can emissions be reduced from the energy supply sector? SectorKey selected mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Key selected mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before Energy Supply efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable energy (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bio-energy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewable energy (tidal and waves energy, concentrating solar, solar and solar PV) Potential share of global electricity supply in 2030 for carbon prices < US$50/tCO2eq: Renewable energy: 30-35% (now 18%) Nuclear energy: 18% (now 16%)

How can emissions from transport be reduced? Sector(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected) TransportMore fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries Biofuel potential 2030: Depends on production pathway, vehicle efficiency, oil and carbon prices 3% of global transport energy in %, if cellulose biomass is commercialised Caution: land and water availability, competition with food

Sector(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected) IndustryMore efficient electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling; control of non-CO 2 gas emissions Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture How can emissions from industry be reduced? Potential predominantly in energy intensive industries. Many efficient installations in developing countires Barriers include slow stock turnover and (for SMEs) lack of financial resources, inability to absorb technical information

Sector(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected) BuildingsEfficient lighting; efficient appliances and airconditioners; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar PV integrated in buildings How can emissions from buildings be reduced? About 30% of projected GHG emissions by 2030 can be avoided with net economic benefit. New buildings: >75% savings compared to current (at low to zero additional cost) Barriers include availability of technologies, financing, cost of reliable information and limitations in building designs

Sector(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before (Selected) AgricultureLand management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques; improved nitrogen fertilizer application; dedicated energy crops Crop yield improvement ForestsAfforestation; reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation; use of forestry products for bioenergy Improved species and productivity; remote sensing systems How can emissions from agriculture and forestry be reduced? Agriculture: soil carbon sequestration ~90% Forests: avoided deforestation ~50% Effect of climate change < 2030: uncertain

How much would it cost? Stern review : stabilisation at 550 in 2050 : Cost of action 1% of Global GDP by 2050 : Inaction will cost 5% Global GDP IPCC: stabilisation at in 2030: cost of action will be % of Global GDP But we will need to live with 2 degree rise in temperature

Proposed Research Revisiting our Life style

Climate Forcing Pollutants DaysWeeks and Days Decades and Centuries LOCAL to REGIONAL GLOBAL Cooling Aerosols Heating Aerosols (transport over long distances) O 3 CO NO x SO Wm -2 CO Wm -2 CH Wm -2 N 2 O 310 HFC 140 Little now SF 6 23,900 PFC Large Particulates Short Lived Gases (Protocol) GHGs

IPCC findings  In 2004 developed countries (UNFCCC Annex I countries) held a 20% share in world population and yet accounted for 46 % of annual GHG emissions. Their economies have a lower average GHG intensity (0.68 kg CO2eq/US$ GDPppp) than those of non- Annex-I countries (1.06 kg CO2eq/US$ GDPppp).  What can be a good benchmark needs serious scientific enquiry irrespective of development (wrongly reflected through GNP measure) stage.  IPCC allows development led emission for poorer section and assesses this to have marginal and tolerable impact.

Key challenge (for India) How to integrate development policy options with climate policy options.

Jadavpur University Thank you Global Change Programme