Status Report Bekele Shiferaw, Kai Sonder, Sika Gbegbelegbe April 16, 2011 Nanyuki, Mount Kenya

Outline ● Progress report on global futures activities – maize and wheat ● Future work

Progress on ‘technical potentials’ report ● What to get out of technical potential report:  List of promising technologies relative to climate change adaptation (technologies that can be maintain yields under biotic and abiotic stresses increased by climate change)  Data/information on the growth process of such crops: this data would be fed into DSSAT or other crop models (APSIM)

Progress on ‘technical potential’ report ● Maize: draft report has been submitted (dropbox)  List of promising technologies (existing technologies) were identified: varieties with tolerance to drought and water- logging; some DT varieties that are also resistant to heat stress  Identification of on-going breeding efforts to develop improved maize varieties  Conservation agriculture: trial data exist  Trial data exist for these technologies; they now have to be evaluated to see whether they can be fed in DSSAT (compare trial data and data requirements in DSSAT)

Progress on ‘technical potential’ report ● Wheat: draft report has been developed  Report does not have specific names for promising technologies (climate change)  Report needs to be updated to include:  List of varieties (current and improved) that can be promising technologies (climate change): –Diseases »Rusts (SR, LR, YR), septoria leaf blotch and septoria nodorum; root pots; BYDV; bunts (including kernel bunt): resistant varieties already exist »Tan spot; leaf blight: work is on-going –Pests »Sun pest, green bug (aphid): work is on-going »Russian wheat aphid, hessian fly: resistant varieties already exist  Trial data exist; it also has to be evaluated to see whether it can be fed into DSSAT

Way forward: short-term ● Maize:  Compare available regional trial data with data requirements in DSSAT  Ongoing work with CIAT in CA (Tortillas on the roaster) ● Wheat  Finalize draft report on promising wheat technologies given climate change  Compare trial data with data requirements in DSSAT

Way forward: short-term ● IMPACT training at IFPRI (April/May, 2011) ● DSSAT Training Muscle Shoals (May, 2011) ● Visit to Mexico (May 2011)  Meet with wheat scientists  Work with Kai on DSSAT and establishing ‘links’ with IMPACT  Identify cultivars for DSSAT modeling:  Discuss the mega and/or point level DSSAT modeling choices for maize and wheat in different regions (depends on data and cultivars)  Discuss crop data collection for DSST runs with breeders

Way forward: short-term ● Assessment of socio-economic and biophysical data on crops (wheat atlas, CRP data bases, sub national data compilation) ● Comprehensive list of scenarios on key environmental and socioeconomic drivers of global change ● Assessment of alternative agricultural research technologies applicable to regions to accelerate attainment of MDG goals ● Assessment of Mega Environment Changes ● SPAM verification (Maize done, Wheat to follow) ● Run DSSAT on Nairobi cluster (CA Maize, India Maize)

Way forward: medium- to long-term (outline for report on IMPACT modeling) ● IMPACT model calibration (maize and wheat) ● Identification of cultivars suitable for different mega- environments and evaluate ● Future crop varieties (virtual crops) ● Estimate yield potential under future climates (2020, 2030, 2050, 2080?) ● Impact of climate change using existing varieties and best- bet agronomy ● Impact of climate change using future technology options (i.e. with adaptation options) ● Compare with baseline conditions (impact of climate change with and without adaptation options)

Ongoing Related Climate Change Work on Maize and Wheat

Africa

Max Temp Changes Per maize Mega environment and Country 19 models A2 Compared to Baseline

Average of 19 models for emission scenario A2 compared to long term annual rainfall

Average of 19 models for emission scenario A2 compared to long term annual minimum temperature