BC SUPPLY GAP: A REDEFINITION OF SELF- SUFFICIENCY 32 nd USAEE/IAEE Conference, Anchorage AK July 29, 2013

Introduction  Paper examines an alternate solution to meeting British Columbia’s electricity needs given the legislated constraints within the Clean Energy Act. 2

British Columbia Bulk Power System GM Shrum and Peace Canyon Mica and Revelstoke Hydroelectric 10,259 MW Thermal 1,086 MW 89 EPAs Two Interties – AB and US 3

BC’s Firm Energy Capability Load Resource Balance 4

Legislated Constraints (a) Achieve electricity self-sufficiency (b) Utilize DSM to reduce expected demand by 66% by 2020 (c) Generate 93% of electricity in BC from clean or renewable energy (d) Keep electricity rates amongst the lowest in North America (e) Reduce GHG emissions by 33% below 2007 levels (f) Become a net exporter of electricity from clean or renewable resources (g) Achieving these objectives without the use of nuclear power 5

Electricity Supply Resources  Power Smart (demand-side management program);  Heritage Hydro (existing hydroelectric units and the proposed Site C facility);  Heritage Thermal (existing thermal units);  Resource Smart (upgrades to existing heritage hydro facilities);  Downstream Benefits (the Canadian Entitlement from the Columbia River Treaty);  Non-Firm/Market Imports 2,500 GWh allowance, and  Electricity Purchase Agreements (EPAs) with IPPs. Of these seven mechanisms, only three (Power Smart, Resource Smart, and EPAs) are able to increase energy supply in the future given the policy constraints that currently exist within the province. 6

Unit Energy Cost at Busbar Average price given by with range of costs given by the vertical black line 7

Import and Export Revenues 8

Price of Electricity in U.S Markets In the BC Hydro 2013 Annual Report, the market price forecast for electricity in 2014 is $29.23/MWh 9

Conclusion  Remove electricity and replace revenue in definition of self-sufficiency  Revenue self-sufficiency would require export revenues to exceed import costs  Allows profitable trading activity to  maintain low rates  reduce the need for expensive EPA 10

Reference: Sopinka, A. and Pitt, L. (2013). British Columbia Electricity Supply Gap Strategy: A Redefinition of Self-sufficiency, The Electricity Journal, Volume 26, Issue 3, pp , 11

Updated cost of generation options 12