Experiments with RAINS-NL Jan Aben

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Contents Features and objectives of RAINS-NL Illustration of a feature Exploration of Euro V and Euro VI effects on PM 2.5 emissions and concentrations Conclusions

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Features Increased spatial resolution (NL domain only) –EMEP based TM’s (50x50 km)  OPS based TMs (5x5 km) –high resolution ecosystem and population data Sector specific transfer matrices allowing better spatial allocation of control measures NO 2 concentration

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Objectives of RAINS-NL Providing a general framework for IA analysis Detailing RAINS outcomes for the Netherlands Studying the effects of alternative national strategies, including the consequences for other countries

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Increased resolution in RAINS-NL RAINS underestimates N-problem in hot spots

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Effects of EURO V and VI on NO 2 and PM 2.5 NO 2 and PM are bottlenecks in Dutch cities Traffic is an important source of NO x and PM emissions Investigation into the effects of proposed EURO standards on PM 2.5 concentrations

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Two alternative strategies MOBv1: Starts from Commission proposal Euro V for cars and vans (starting ± 2008) and European stimulation of cleaner trucks (Euro IV and V) MOBv2: Starts from Commission proposal EURO V for cars and vans and EURO VI (starting ± 2012) for cars and trucks (Ricardo) Alternative strategies applied to NL, BE, GE, FR, UK

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Development of shares of Euro standards

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Reduction of NO x emission by road traffic in 2020

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Reduction of PM 2.5 emission by road traffic in 2020

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Effect on PM 2.5 concentration in NL

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Spatial allocation of effect on PM 2.5 concentration RAINS/EMEP underestimates effect of measures for hot spots

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May PM2.5 concentrations along city streets in 2020

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Conclusions Euro V and VI are essential measures to reduce PM 2.5 (and NO 2 ) in Dutch urban locations (but possibly not sufficient to meet indicative targets everywhere) RAINS/EMEP underestimates problems in hot spots RAINS/EMEP underestimates effects of measures for hot spots

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Increased life expectancy RAINS-NL RAINS  LE CC CC MOBv1+5.4 days days-0.20 MOBv2+8.6 days days-0.34

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Effect on NO 2 -concentration

Jan Aben, Experiments with RAINS-NL, Rome, May Performance OPS