Historical Analysis WG Report to TAS November 28, 2007

Overview 1.OATI Database Review Path Flow Report – Approval Item 3.Future Archiving of Commercial Data

I. OATI Database Review OATI “commercial” Database –Developed under a Contract with US DOE –Database time period –Commercial Data for 28 major WECC paths –Hourly directional ATC, Schedules, OTC, CBM/TRM –Source - POR POD data from western OASIS sites WestTrans, BPA, CAISO, PacifiCorp –Appears to be much missing data in database

Review Results Requested TPs review the OATI database –Sent to 22 TPs to review their data –Only 13 have responded – now 6 weeks past due date –Only 7 have actually reviewed the data and provided comments (BPA, SRP, CAISO, PAC, El Paso, WALC, Platte River) –4 of the 13 have indicated they cannot review the database –Conclusion: Appears the OATI database will have limited usefulness –Next Step: identify those WECC paths with sufficient data to do some analysis to check analysis methodology

II Path Flow Report Requesting TAS approval of the report Report presents the analysis performed in 2006 as part of the first US DOE congestion study, thru the WCATF Uses actual historical hourly MW flows on all major paths; no ATC or Schedule data Summary of analysis was submitted to US DOE in May 2006

Contents of path flow report Analyzes 24 WECC paths thru 2005 For each path - - presents a bar chart showing seasonal U75 from 1998 thru 2005 For each path - - presents seasonal frequency distribution plot for 2004 and 2005 Includes charts summarizing U75 and U90 for all 24 paths Presents trend analysis charts thru 2005 See example charts in following slides

BUCKLEY SUNDANCE FT. PECK PEACE CANYON MICA VANCOUVER SEATTLE PRINCE RUPERT AREA COLSTRIP BOISE PORTLAND AREA MALIN TABLE MTN ROUND MTN SALT LAKE CITY AREA MEXICO EL PASO AREA DEVERS LUGO SAN FRANCISCO MIDPOINT AREA LOS ANGELES AREA ALBUQUERQUE AREA NAVAJO DENVER AREA MOJAVE HOOVER PHOENIX AREA LANGDON HOT SPRINGS HELLS CANYON CHIEF JOSEPH BURNS PINTO FOUR CORNERS SHASTA LANGDON CANADA UNITED STATES Transmission Paths 1

III. Future Archiving of Commercial Data Formed a new Subgroup to develop a future data collection process Membership – –Includes representative of the HAWG and each SPG (NTTG, CG, CAISO, SWAT, CCPG) Options under consideration –Use WECC staff resources to integrate data gathering and archiving process with rebuilding of WECC web site –Obtain services from a database vendor –The Vendor option would help address the workload problem we are experiencing with database development. Need to determine the cost.

Vendor Option - ZE Group Webcast presentation by ZE group on November 20 ZE currently gathers over 400 data points accessible from the web, from OASIS sites, TP sites, etc. Can do the conversion of POR POD OASIS data to WECC path data Can do database computations (statistical calculations, graphic presentations, chronological plots, seasonal and peak and off peak analysis, etc.)

QUESTIONS ???