How will Climate Change in the future? J.SRINIVAS AN Contd...

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

Global mean sea level changes

From Anthes et al(2005)

Future CO2 720 ppm

20-km model Future - Present Note the change over the southwestern coasts Rajendran &Kitoh, 2005

ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE

Tipping elements Processes, particularly sensitive to climate change Arctic sea ice melting Deep water formation Antarctic ozone hole West Antarctic ice sheet Amazon vegetation Marine carbon cycle Indian monsoon Sahara El Niño Southern Oscillation Himalaya snow cover Methane outgasing Arctic ozone depletion depletion Greenland ice sheet

Transition in Monsoon occurs within 25 years! Burns et al. (2003) Science 301: Socotra Island (12°30’ N 54°E) Indian Ocean cave stalagmite proxy for monsoonal precipitation Greenland ice core proxy for local temperature

The Himalayan Dilemma: Reconciling Development and Conservation by Ives and Messerli 1989 “The impacts of climate change are superimposed on a variety of other environmental and social stresses, many already recognized as severe”

Global Warming is a symptom of a much larger problem The degradation of the quality of air,water and soil

Among the 15 most polluted cities in the world 12 are in Asia Air Pollution

In 2007, Miller et al. found that an increased relative risk of 1.76 for death from cardiovascular disease for every increase of 10 μg per cubic meter in the mean concentration of particles below 2.5 micron

Vitousek (1994)

Robert Diaz, Virginia Institute of Marine Science

From NASA GRACE Satellite: Aug 2002 to Oct 2008 Loss of 100 Km 3 of ground water in 6 years!

Global warming is the mother of all environmental scares Global warming dwarfs all the environmental and safety scares of our time put together. Warming,……. is capable of realizing the environmentalist’s dream of an egalitarian society based on rejection of economic growth in favor of a smaller population’s eating lower on the food chain, consuming a lot less, and sharing a much lower level of resources much more equally Aaron Wildavsky

Deutsches Museum (2003) Solar thermal power plant

Courtesy: Han Jiangong Beijing SUNDA Solar Technology Co

Deutsches Museum (2003) Offshore windpark Middelgrunden off the Danish island Lolland

Thank You I am ready for a barrage of questions!