Livestock Markets and Outlook Spring Livestock Conference 2013 Douglas County, Oregon April 13, 2013 James G. Robb Director

USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Foundation CoBank TCFA CWB TCU 29 land Grant Universities:

Topics: Markets and … Grain/Feedstuff Markets Corn A Quick Look at Hay Aspects of U.S. Consumer Beef Demand International Trade Comments: Beef & Cattle Poultry, Pork and Lamb Market Comments Cattle Markets and Outlook Economic Environment Summary USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS All Forecasts – LMIC

Grain/Feedstuffs

Drought – A Game Changer

Data Source: USDA-AMS

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-AMS

Data Source: USDA-NASS

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

US Consumer Demand and Consumption (Disappearance)

Data Source: Dept. Commerce-BEA

Data Source: Department of Commerce-BEA

Data Source: LMIC

Data Source: USDA-NASS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

International Trade Comments

Data Source: IMF

Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS

Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-AMS & APHIS

Chicken, Pork and Lamb

Data Source: USDA-NASS

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-AMS

Data Source: USDA-NASS

Data Source: USDA-FAS and ERS, Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-AMS

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

Cattle Market

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2012 TO JANUARY 2013 (1000 Head) Data Source: USDA-NASS U.S. Total: -862

Data Source: USDA-NASS

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

Commercial Beef Production Total Cattle Inventory Data Source: USDA-NASS

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-AMS, Forecasts by LMIC

Data Source: USDA-AMS

Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC

Latest Data: March 2013 Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis and Forecasts by LMIC

Economic Environment …. Domestic Consumer Demand has Stabilized and is Slowly Improving for Red Meats. Recession versus +3% GDP Growth? Foreign Beef Demand Strong but Slipping Price Volatility Will Continue (Globalization, Ethanol, etc.) Market Shocks Will Continue ( ; BSE; 2008 Credit Crisis) Market Segmentation Accelerating Economic Incentive to Grow U.S. Cowherd Overcome by Drought Controls Already Set to Dramatically Reduced Beef Output High Feedstuff Price Range Expected to Continue Headwind to Calf and Yearling Prices -- Compressed Margins for Cattle Feeders and Beef Packers Mistakes Are Costly, Sound Business Practices Required Agile Firms Will Benefit…. Be Adaptable NOT Adapted

Thank You!