Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan, February 2013 EEA activities in Western Balkan region related to forward-looking assessments SESSION 3: Introduction to getting to know WB scenarios Anita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA

ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES IN THE WESTERN BALKANS: FUTURE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PATTERNS: 2 forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans, in particular the role of consumption and production patterns Different futures State Driving forces 2010

Caucasus 3 Global workshop OSCE-EEA: Regional security implications of climate change impacts Regional workshops Global driving forcesRegional Scenarios Eastern Europe Food security Western Balkans Water availability Arctic Mediterranean Central Asia Water-energy- agriculture nexus Regional to Global workshop Impacts to security Assessment; Environment and security key messages 2012 SOER 2010 — assessment of global megatrends Shifting Bases, Shifting Perils, A Scoping Study of Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region EEA Brochure: Using scenarios as tool for better understanding environment and security issues 2011

4 OPPORTUNITIES FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN BALKANS IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND WATER SCARCITY EXPLORATIVE SCENARIO WORKSHOP BELGRADE, SERBIA, OCTOBER 2011

5 Worksop question: What are the options for developments in western Balkan region to hedge risks associated with climate change and water availability? Outcomes: 1. Scenarios on impact of climate change to water availability in WB until Key risks which may occur in 4 scenarios 3. Pathways to some goals to hedge the risks

6 1.SCENARIO QUESTION

7 Group 1

8 Group 2

9 Group 3

10 2. Most important and most uncertain driving forces in WB: Climate change impacts (high-low) - preselected  one selected at the workshop: Land use changes (favourable- unfavourable) Economic growth (investment, recovery) Real resources cost and affordability (availability)

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13 SFRJ (socialistic federative Republic of Yugoslavia) Equality Quite high quality of life Good knowledge base Good environment management Integrated water management, strong policies and cross border agreement, renewable energy dominating SFRJ (socialistic federative Republic of Yugoslavia) Equality Quite high quality of life Good knowledge base Good environment management Integrated water management, strong policies and cross border agreement, renewable energy dominating Endless horror poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, the day after tomorrow., deteriorated environment,spiral development to negative high water scarcity, extreme events not managed leading to further deterioration of economy Endless horror poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, the day after tomorrow., deteriorated environment,spiral development to negative high water scarcity, extreme events not managed leading to further deterioration of economy Horror without end poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, ecosystems recovery drinking water deficit, scarcity in general, water use in agriculture mainly Horror without end poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, ecosystems recovery drinking water deficit, scarcity in general, water use in agriculture mainly Yes, we can, Technogarden in Balkan Green and rich and can tackle Intensive resource use, controlled, technology driven Ground water drop, import of water from Russia, energy dependant on imports Yes, we can, Technogarden in Balkan Green and rich and can tackle Intensive resource use, controlled, technology driven Ground water drop, import of water from Russia, energy dependant on imports Climate change impacts Economic growth Sustainable high low Un-sustainable 3. Selected scenarios axes and developed scenarios

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