NATCATSERVICE AND FLOOD ISSUES FOCUS ON EUROPE PETRA LÖW May 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

NATCATSERVICE AND FLOOD ISSUES FOCUS ON EUROPE PETRA LÖW May 2011

MUNICH RE AND THE NATCATSERVICE Munich Re and the NatCatSERVICE Structure of flood events in the database Focus on Europe An insurance perspective on flood events

© 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011 NatCatSERVICE Munich Re Insurance Company Founded 1880 Largest Reinsurer worldwide

NatCatSERVICE Offices in 60 countries worldwide Leading insurer of natural hazards Gross premium 2010: EUR 24bn NatCat losses 2010: EUR 1.5 bn Munich Re Insurance Company © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

NatCatSERVICE Founded 1974 Based on a unique paper archive at country basis One of the most comprehensive database on natural catastrophes Focus on overall and insured losses Global loss database about natural catastrophes NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

NatCatSERVICE Global loss database about natural disasters NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

NatCatSERVICE Global loss database about natural disasters Data YearNumber of data sets >28,000 data sets © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

STRUCTURE OF FLOOD EVENTS IN THE DATABASE Munich Re and the NatCatSERVICE Structure of flood events in the database Focus on Europe An insurance perspective on flood events

NatCatSERVICE Global loss database about natural disasters Peril hierarchy and terminology Storm - Tropical storm - Extratropical storm - Convective storm - Local storm Geophysical eventsMeteorological eventsHydrological eventsClimatological events Earthquake Mass movement (dry) - Rockfall - Landslide - Subsidence Volcanic eruption Flood - General flood - Flash flood - Storm surge Mass movement (wet) - Rockfall - Avalange - Landslide - Subsidence Extreme temperature - Heat wave - Cold wave - Extreme winter conditions Drought Forest fire © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Hurricane Ike Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages Region Details Damages USA Cuba Turks & Caicos Dom. Rep Haiti Bahamas NatCatSERVICE Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Region-Event © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

*in 2010 values *in 2010 values NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2010 Percentage distribution 19,400 Loss events2,275,000 Fatalities Overall losses* US$ 3,000bnInsured losses* US$ 740bn Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2010 Number of events with trend – relative trend per hazard group NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

Severe storm Affected region Scientific details Damage Affected people Affected region Scientific details Damage Affected people Affected region Scientific details Damage Affected people Affected region Scientific details Damage Affected people Affected region Scientific details Damage Affected people Affected region Scientific details Damage Affected people Food Landslide Hail NatCatSERVICE Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Peril-Event © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

source: AP NatCatSERVICE Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Peril-Event Severe storm, flash floods July 2007 Baiersdorf, Germany © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

source: AP NatCatSERVICE Content, Structure and Methodology Multi-Peril-Event 117m € overall losses 87m € insured losses in a town of 7,000 people © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

FOCUS ON EUROPE Munich Re and the NatCatSERVICE Structure of flood events in the database Focus on Europe An insurance perspective of flood events

Natural Catastrophes in Europe Map NatCatSERVICE Earthquake 1980 Italy (Irpinia) Overall losses*: € 11.8bn Insured losses*: € 0.04bn Fatalities: 2,900 Floods 2002 Europe (Elbe, Danube) Overall losses*: € 21.9bn Insured losses*: € 3.5bn Heatwave, drought 2003 Europe Overall losses*: € 12.3bn Insured losses*: € 0.02bn Fatalities: 70,000** Winter Storm Daria 1990 Europe (esp. United Kingdom) Overall losses*: € 5.9bn Insured losses*: € 4.4bn Winter Storm Xynthia, storm surge 2010 Europe (esp. France) Overall losses*: € 4.5bn Insured losses*: € 2.3bn Winter Storm Lothar 1999 Europe (esp. France) Overall losses*: €11.5bn Insured losses*: € 5.9bn Heatwave, wildfires 2010 Russia Fatalities: 56,000** Winter Storm Kyrill 2007 Europe (esp. Germany) Overall losses*: € 7.8bn Insured losses*: € 4.5bn Floods, 2007 United Kingdom Overall losses*: € 6bn Insured losses*: € 4.4bn Floods 2000 Europe (esp. Italy) Overall losses*: € 10bn Insured losses*: € 0.57bn Floods, flash floods 1994 Italy Overall losses*: € 7.5bn Insured losses*: € 0.05bn Natural disasters Deadliest and costliest events* * Losses in original values ** Excess mortality rate Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, wildfire) Earthquake 2009 Italy (L’Aquila) Overall losses*: € 2bn Insured losses*: € 0.2bn Fatalities: 295 © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 Number of events NatCatSERVICE Number Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

Natural catastrophes worldwide Percentage distribution: Loss events and fatalities 4,100 Loss events150,000 Fatalities NatCatSERVICE Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Meteorological events (Storm) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May ,700 storm events 700 with floods/flash floods

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 Overall and insured losses NatCatSERVICE (bn EUR) Overall losses (in 2010 values)Insured losses (in 2010 values) © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

AN INSURANCE PERSPECTIVE OF FLOOD EVENTS Munich Re and the NatCatSERVICE Structure of flood events in the database Focus on Europe An insurance perspective on flood events

This costs This costs MRNatCatSERVICE Problems in data chasing Early loss estimates (often proclaimed by politicians)

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 Overall and insured losses of flood events NatCatSERVICE (bn EUR) Overall losses (in 2010 values)Insured losses (in 2010 values) © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011 EUR 29.6 bn

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 Overall losses of flood events NatCatSERVICE (bn EUR) Overall losses (in 2010 values)Insured losses (in 2010 values) © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 Insured losses of flood events NatCatSERVICE (bn EUR) Overall losses (in 2010 values)Insured losses (in 2010 values) © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

without flood control T = 0 h Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

without flood control T = 4 h Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

 additional measures (e.g. sand bags) without flood control T = 6 h Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

 surface flooding  property damage often reduced, sometimes even avoided without flood control T = 8 h Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

with flood control T = 0 Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

with flood control T = 4 h Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

with flood control T = 6 h  no surface flooding  people feel safe, do not undertake precautionary measures Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

with flood control T = 8 h Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

with flood control T = 8 h 10 min.  when the dyke fails, no measures are possible anymore Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

with flood control T = 8 h 10 min.  high flow velocities causes greater destruction Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 An insurance perspective of flood events NatCatSERVICE © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 Overall and insured losses of flood events NatCatSERVICE YearRegionOverall losses (in m EUR) Insured losses (in m EUR) % Insured 2010Croatia. Germany. Hungary. Romania. Slovakia. Czech Republic. Poland. Austria 3, ,4% 2007United Kingdom3,0002,20073% 2005Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Slovenia, Switzerland 2,7001,40051% 2003France1, % 2002Germany. Austria. Czech Republic. Hungary. Moldova. Switzerland. Slovakia 16,8003,50021% © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! PETRA LÖW

Questions that should be handled when building the new European Flood Database How will floods/flash floods that occur during a storm/severe storm be handled - can you separate the damage wind vs flood? Which information does EFD include ? Monetary loss information? Or more scientific information (precipication, gauges, catchments) What is the purpos of EFD? To implement mitigation measures or adaptation? Who will be the user group (decision makers, politicians, civil engineers) Which data do THEY need Will there be a breakdown into countries, admin 2 or more detailed for every event If the data are automatically generated, is there a plausibility / quality check? Are the events physically stored, how far back ? Do you count floods per country occurance or per atmospheric event (Germany + Austria, river Danube) Langlebigkeit der Datenbank oder Ende nach Projekt? How independent from money? Which technique will you use? Have you access to information in all European countries Which countries are included EEA-countries or entire Europe What if new countries join EU. How will you reach decision makers?

Natural catastrophes worldwide Percentage distribution: Overall and insured losses Overall losses EUR 415bnInsured losses EUR 130bn NatCatSERVICE Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Meteorological events (Storm) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption) © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at May 2011

*in 2010 values *in 2010 values NatCatSERVICE Natural catastrophes in Europe 1980 – 2010 Percentage distribution 4,100 Loss events150,000 Fatalities Overall losses* EUR 415bnInsured losses* EUR 130bn © 2011 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2011 Meteorological events (Storm) Hydrological events (Flood, mass movement) Climatological events (Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Geophysical events (Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption)