Indicators for Monitoring and Evaluating Adaptation at a National Level The UK’s Experience Jon Elliott – Science Lead, Climate Change Adaptation 8th EIONET Workshop, 24th June 2014

The UK’s Nation System Adaptation Lead Mitigation Lead Climate Services Delivery

Climate Change Act - Deliverables Climate Change Risk Assessment – CCRA Delivered every 5 years Consider the highest impact risks and opportunities for the UK National Adaptation Programme – NAP Delivered every 5 years Deals with the risks and opportunities laid out in the CCRA Prioritised, risk based approach Sets a number of ‘actions’ required to address risks Shared responsibility across government (local and national) as well as business and civil society Adaptation Reporting Power – ARP Gives the Secretary of State the power to require certain organisations to report on the major risks and their responses to these risks as well as progress they have made Organisation’s responses feed into the CCRA

Timeline – The 5 year Cycle Indicators

The National Adaptation Programme The NAP has six chapters that broadly follow the themes in the CCRA: Built environment Infrastructure Healthy and resilient communities Agriculture and forestry Natural environment, and Business. In addition a seventh chapter describes the role of local government in delivering adaptation across all sectors of society. Each of the NAP chapters set out a vision, objectives and specific actions that will be taken to address the priority climate risks and opportunities that in the Government’s view require the most urgent attention. – A total of 31 objectives consisting of 374 specific action (125 high level). Responsibility for completing these actions and objectives lies with the relevant government department and key members of the private and third sectors – a mainstreamed approach. The Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change has a statutory duty to report to Parliament on the UK Government’s progress against these actions and objectives.

Adaptation indicators – The Challenge Measuring adaptation is highly challenging – Much harder than mitigation! Mitigation Adaptation Targets and metrics Clear national target: 80% by 2050 Standard metric exists to measure progress across all sectors (carbon emissions) No national-level targets. No standard metric across sectors Uncertainty Most emission sources identified, being monitored & addressed Uncertainty in climate projections. Not all risks understood Context Global atmosphere Climate impacts are national, regional and local

Indicators In 2015 the ASC will produce a formal report on the UK’s progress toward implementing the action in the National Adaptation Programme. This will require the development of a number of adaptation indicators, many of which have been in development over the last four years, through the ASC’s Progress Reports. Progress will be assessed against high priority risks as laid out in the Climate Change Risk Assessment. The focus will be on outcome indicators and will be categorised into the following 4 categories: Trends in exposure– factors that may be increasing the presence of people, infrastructure, or other economic, social, or environmental assets in places that could be adversely affected by climate impacts, such as developing in the floodplain. Trends in vulnerability – factors that may be increasing the propensity or predisposition of people, infrastructure, or other economic, social or environmental assets to be adversely affected by climate impacts, such as the condition of infrastructure or the state of climate-sensitive wildlife habitats. Adaptation actions – factors that are likely to be reducing vulnerability to climate risks or helping to take advantage of opportunities, such as the uptake of property-level flood protection measures or the sales of adaptation goods and services. Realised impacts – tracking over time the actual impacts of climate hazards on the UK’s economy, society and environment, such as insured losses from flooding or the proportion of transport delays caused by severe weather. Whilst there is year-on-year variability in impacts and it will be difficult to attribute single weather events to climate change, monitoring trends in impacts will serve as a useful benchmark. Over time we may be able to ascertain whether there is a link between trends in impacts and the uptake of actions to reduce risk.

Indicators - Risk Assessment framework IPCC Definition of Climate Risk Realised impacts Trends in vulnerability Adaptation actions Trends in exposure

Indicators – The ASC Approach The ASC have identified and characterised over 250 indicators spread across the 7 NAP themes. Each NAP chapter has been broken down by its key risks and opportunities. Indicators characterised into the four groups: Exposure, vulnerability, actions and realised impacts Data drawn from a wide range of sources: Government statistical publications Trade body information Policy responses Consultancy research Stakeholder engagement Mainly publically available Commissioned research to plug gaps Most indicators not originally designed for adaptation ASC running a consultation on indicators – views welcome

Indicators – how they are classified NAP Theme Number of indicators Built Environment 54 Infrastructure 71 Health 34 Agriculture and Forestry 32 Natural Environment 46 Business 19 Local Authority 4 The ~ 250 indicators are split by the four categories and specific risks and opportunities. Therefore, some theme-risk categories are more represented than others.

Indicators – Examples Built Environment (BE) Infrastructure (IN) Increased flooding/severe weather Annual rate of development on flood plain Exposure Reduced water availability Number/proportion of water companies with a low Security of Supply Index Vulnerability Intensified urban heat island effect Area of green roofs installed Action Infrastructure (IN) Volume of rail passengers/freight at risk of flooding/subsidence/coastal erosion Number/proportion of power stations reliant on freshwater with efficient cooling systems Increased sewer overspills Number/proportion of water company sewer assets in poor condition Healthy & Resilient Communities (HCR) Increased extreme temperatures Implementation of Heatwave Action Plan Local authority expenditure on emergency planning and response Other climate-related health risks Levels of indoor damp/mould

Indicators - Examples Agriculture & Forestry (AF) Potential for new crops/increased yields Investment in research into new crops/yields Opportunity Reduced water availability/increased aridity Proportion of abstraction for irrigation from catchments at risk of water scarcity Exposure Reduced soil productivity Proportion/area of Best and Most Versatile agricultural land losing soil carbon Vulnerability Increased flooding/waterlogging Proportion/area of Best and Most Versatile agricultural land in areas with a high likelihood of flooding Increased pests and pathogens Agricultural losses from pests/pathogens Impact Natural Environment (NE) Changes to climate space Area of terrestrial Priority Habitat being created/restored per year Action Reduction in ecosystem goods and services Proportion/area of degraded deep peat habitats being restored Reduced water availability/quality Levels of nutrient enrichment in freshwater habitats Vulnerability Business (BUS) Sales of adaptation goods and services Value of exports of adaptation goods and services per year Opportunity Increased flooding/severe weather Proportion/number of businesses at risk signing-up to Flood Warnings Reduced water availability Losses to businesses from reduced water availability Impact Disruption to supply chains Proportion of UK-based companies with supply chains reliant on countries at high risk from climate change Exposure Local Government (LG) Various priority risks Proportion of local authorities who have signed up to Climate Local and/or the Cities Commitment

Next steps and contacts ASC to publish 2014 progress report on July 9th Focus for this year is infrastructure , business, health and emergency planning (‘Adapting to Climate Change: climate risks to the economy and well-being’) Consultation on indicators to be launched to gather feedback on the ASC’s indicators as defined so far. – Identify any gaps Statutory report on the NAP to be delivered next year (July 2015). For further information on indicators and the Adaptation Sub Committee please contact Dave Thompson: David.thompson@theccc.gsi.gov.uk Jon.elliott@defra.gsi.gov.uk

Discussion Section Guided Questions

Question 1 What are the key needs and policy demands for monitoring and evaluation on adaptation and related indicators at national level?

Question 2 What is currently available at national level?

What are the main developments? Question 3 What are the main developments? What happens if or when data and indicators do not exist? What innovative solutions can be found?

Question 4 How can countries learn from other experiences?