Contribution by Philippe Keckhut, Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL Chantal Claud, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL An updated analysis of stratospheric.

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Presentation transcript:

Contribution by Philippe Keckhut, Service d’Aéronomie/IPSL Chantal Claud, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL An updated analysis of stratospheric temperature trends

Overview - lidar stations - SSU characteristics - comparisons SSU/lidars - Solar effect

Lidars StationLatitudeLongitudeOperating since Hohenpeissenberg47,80°N11,02°E1987 OHP: Obs de Haute-Provence 43,93°N5,71°E1979 Table Mountain Facility 34,04°N117,70°W1988 Hawaï19,54°N155,58°W1993 La Réunion21,80°S55,5°E1994 Table 1. List of lidar stations used in this study

SSU weighting functions AMSU weighting functions

Comparisons for OHP + Hohenpeissenberg channel 26 (6 hPa)

? Comparisons for OHP + Hohenpeissenberg - channel 47X (0,5 hPa)

Comparison for TMF - channel 27 (2 hPa)

Comparison for Mauna Loa - channel 47X (0,5 hPa)

Oscillation at low altitude, not present at higher altitudes? Comparisons for La Réunion - channels 26 (6 hPa) and 47X (0,5 hPa)

TMF OHP Vertical trends

TEMPERATURE CLIMATOLOGY AND TREND ESTIMATES OF THE UTLS REGION AS OBSERVED AT A SOUTHERN SUBTROPICAL SITE, DURBAN, SOUTH AFRICA H. Bencherif, et al., ACPD, hPa Linear trend

Temperature climatology above Dumont D’Urville (Antarctica) Keckhut et al. Nov-AprilAug.-Oct. Occurrence of T < 190K ECMWF-RS at 100hPa for

47X X MSU4 Cagnazzo et al.,

The multi-parameter regressions (AMOUNTS) ( Hauchecorne et al., 1991; Keckhut et al., 1995) To evaluate temperature trends and variability (for data and model outputs): It is necessary to parametrize the variability: T(t) = m + St + ATrend + BSolar + CQBO + DENSO + EAO + Nt The A, B, C, D, E terms represent the amplitude of trends / factors of variability; (! Volcanic eruptions) The residuals (AR(1)) include all the variability not considered in the parametrization. The analysis of the residual terms : model inadequacies the degree of confidence of the analysis

Solaire SOI QBO (B. Naujokat) Indice AO: Thompson and Wallace, 1998 Les facteurs de variabilité de la température stratosphérique

Response to the 11-year solar cycle US Rocket sites Tropics Sub-tropics Mid-latitudes Kekchut et al., 2005

Response to the 11-year solar cycle Lidar 44°N SummerWinter Keckhut et al., 2005

Response to the 11-year solar cycle ±70° SSU at 6 hPa Keckhut et al., 2005

Response to solar cycle at low latitudes, photochemical response at high and mid- latitudes, negative response with a strong seasonal dependence Role of the dynamics?

Mechanistic simulations of the atmospheric solar response Response depends on Planetary Waves activity Response is highly non-linear Clim*1.5 Clim*1.8 Clim*2.2 3D Rose/Reprobus model at SA Hampson et al., 2005

Solar cycle/ conclusions Equatorial response close to the photochemical response (1-2 K) Negative response at mid and high latitudes with a strong seasonal effect The solar response is strongly related to wave activity

Concerning the future… - a new Phd student should work on trends from September 2006 on: methodology, temperature satellite retrievals, and trend updates. - Europeen project Geomon (IP, P.K. coordinator deputy): ground- satellite synergy for trend estimates (can be seen as a european contribution to SPARC). - work on solar influence on the low stratosphere: observations ( FUB, MSU4, SSU) + Rose-Reprobus simulations. - study of the solar influence using LMDz-Reprobus including an interactive chemistry (a 20 years run is available) + extension to the mesosphere.