Support to HQ ISAF, Kabul, Afghanistan, Spring 2002 Presentation to 19 ISMOR John Sharpe Head OA HQ Land Command Support to HQ ISAF, Kabul, Afghanistan, Spring 2002 Presentation to 19 ISMOR John Sharpe Head OA HQ Land Command

Timeline Campaign v Taliban & AQ ISAF Planning ISAF Deployment SeptOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJul Analyst 1 Analyst 2 Analyst 3 Analyst 4 Handover to Turkey Bonn

Dealing with extreme climatic conditions Basic wash facilities Worse food than mess food Bottled water Keeping fit Motivation Having fun! Living Conditions 1.

Living Conditions 2

Working Conditions

Reachback Historical Analysis Team QinetiQ OA Cell In-Theatre Initial Response & Coordination of Reachback Tasks HQ Land Base Team Dstl Frontline “ PCS (was HLS) Air Systems - Farnborough - Portsdown - Farnborough Mortar School Army RAF Waddington AWC

Summary of Work Pre-Deployment Deployed Team 1 (Feb-Apr) Deployed Team 2 (Apr-Jun) Measures of Success Target Audience Analysis (TAA) »Loya Jirga Delegates Arrival Model J2 Database APOD Threat Analysis Medical Statistics and Blood Data »Measures of Success »Target Audience Analysis (TAA) Fuel Utilisation Calculator (FUC) Blood Donor Analysis APOD Threat Analysis ISAF News Statistical Advice and Explanation Data Collection and Canvassing of Cells Historical Analysis Review Troops to Task »Strategic Lift Sustainment

Strategic Lift

Few a/c equipped Few Aircrew trained Air routes under threat Nighttime flying Evasive routing Sanitise approach & transit routes Teeth Runways constrained Little offload space Engineers Airfields damaged & Contaminated EOD Clear Repair Move material Transport Roads under threat Movement Constrained Teeth & Transport Escorted Convoys HQ areas Contaminated Little living & storage space Clear Construct Engineers EOD Political Imperative Teeth Visible Presence Patrol

EOD and Lift Model Engineering Capacity Aircraft Handling Capacity Aircraft Arrival Rate Storage Capacity Transport Capacity Onward Movement Rate Materiel at Airhead Materiel at Destination Storage Capacity

Sustainability Lift Model Sustainment Requirement Aircraft Arrival Rate Forces in Theatre Force Arrival Rate

Measurement of Success

Measurement of Success (MOS) Proposed by HQ ISAF 25 JAN 02 Initially led by KMNB (UK-led) List of Measurable Indicators Required list of police and crime indicators Required list of military activity and equipment Proposed list of social, economic and infrastructure indicators Specialist OA support requested 10 Feb 02 OA analyst arrived in theatre 18 Feb 02 Handover to the GE-led KMNB Losses during handover from UK Bde… … and deemed of little value and not collected by GE Bde

Schematic Overview of Campaign Plan PHASE II - FOC Security Assistance ISAF Coherence Infrastructure/ Humanitarian Sp DP4 DP5 DP9 DP11 DP16 DP8 DP1DP15 DP10 DP21 DP19 Strategic CofG Coherence of IA OP Endstate Strategic Endstate PHASE III - Further Assistance DP1 Reassurance Patrolling/Deter Violence Violence DP2 Force Protection/Sustainment DP3 Contractorisation DP4 International Sp for ISAF/ JCB for IA/ISAF Cohesion DP5 De-Militarised Kabul DP6 Factional and Tribal Tolerance DP7 ISAF acceptance(IA/Pop) DP8 Open KIA DP9 Power/Water/Sanitation/Med DP10 DPs relocated DP11 Sp Neutralisation of anti-IA Faction Threat DP12 Functioning Judiciary DP13 New Afghan Security Structures DP14 Local Sp for ISAF DP15 DDR Programme DP16 Structural Development DP17 Manage Expectations DP18 Force Transition to FOF DP19 Reformed Armed Forces DP20 Functional Police Force DP21 Inter Theatre Land LOC Sp DP22 Loya Jirga DP3 Political /Legal Security of Kabul DP7 DP6 DP14 DP18 DP20 DP2 DP12DP13 DP17DP22 Financial

Data Types & Sources Patrolling- Numbers- Patrol Reports - Duration Policing- Number of patrols- HQ KMNB Crime- Numbers- RMP - Types- IA Police - Rest of World- Reachback Military- Sightings - Vehicle Movements - HQ KMNB - Barracks in use - EOD data Medical- DNBI- HQ ISAF - Types- Clinic data CIMIC- Projects Completed- HQ KMNB Use of KIA- Flights- Airfield Staff Commerce- Vehicle Movements- HQ KMNB

Crime by Time (as at end of APR 02)

Headline Murder Rate

Target Audience Analysis

Info Ops Media products to convey ISAF’s message to the people of Kabul : ISAF Newspaper ISAF Radio ISAF TV ISAF Loudspeakers ISAF Leaflets They wished to measure to measure Kabuli’s attitudes and the penetration of these ISAF media products.

Dropboxes For & Against For: can use to distribute other material - leaflets & newspapers questionnaires available to all no pressure or time limits for completion cheap & easy to make collections facilitates comparison of police districts potentially large samples Against: security & safety issues multiple entries by individuals collusion problems with illiterate people possible access problems (location vital)

1st ISAF Info Box, Spin Kalay, Police District 9

Summary of Conclusions: Presence of ISAF soldiers & ISAF media products well received by the majority of Kabulis. Most Kabulis believe the security situation has improved. There is a good understanding of the ISAF mission. Gaps in knowledge have been identified. TAA is enabling targeting of Info Ops products.

Loya Jirga Delegates Arrival Model

Initial Reception Wow! Great! Brilliant! Must show this to the COS “Mentioned in dispatches” You guys don’t have anything better to do? Is this another game?

Concluding Remarks

Lessons Simple is good, speed of response is paramount The earlier OA is involved the better the payoff: Need to get the MOS-type studies underway early in order to shape them and establish data collection E xpect the utility of OA to continue throughout the operation - providing analysts are on-hand Reach back is great but still need deployed OA OA team often of value to HQ as source of semi-expert IT: Continues to be the case even with increased “IT literacy” in HQ Many tasks IT-based rather than true OA OA standalone PC kit often in demand Expertise with MS Office applications underlies much of our utility Standalone nature demands IT ability within the team

Use of OA Outputs GOC/COS Interim Administration Foreign Ministers Visiting Senior Military Media Ops Info Ops / Psy Ops UK – longer term campaign monitoring Pte Bloggs!